Italy

After the flurry of four deals that priced yesterday afternoon (See separate comments), the market has gone into radio silence.

German 10-year Bunds are correcting slightly higher this (Friday) morning, but a long term trend of rising yields that has been in place since August remains intact. As a result, real money accounts are increasingly hitting their target returns –a driving factor behind a hugely upsized increase of a tap for Caisse de Refinancement de l’Habitat.

Benchmark covered bond supply in 2011 is likely to be close to 2010 volumes, according to covered bond analysts, with no analysis forecasting more than a Eu20bn rise or fall relative to 2010 levels.

Following a premature halt to new issuance this year, syndicate bankers expect the onset of 2011 to bring a rush of benchmark covered bond supply as issuers hasten to execute funding plans in anticipation of continued market volatility. A liquid buy-side should ensure that deals are readily absorbed - at least initially.

Rough market conditions and dwindling liquidity mean that few to no deals could be launched next week although some issuers are still monitoring the market, according to syndicate bankers.

The covered bond market could still be open for deals from high quality issuers and solid jurisdictions, according to syndicate bankers, despite wider market conditions quickly deteriorating yesterday (Monday) over fears that political turmoil in Ireland could derail implementation of a European Union and International Monetary Fund bailout package.

The pace of benchmark covered bond supply could step up a gear this week, with Credit Suisse eyeing the middle of the week for the launch of its inaugural issue, a Dutch bank said to be close to coming to market and others deciding on next steps after having finished roadshows last week. But another issuer has put primary market plans on hold until next year.

An April 2016 Caisse de Refinancement de l’Habitat issue was the only new benchmark covered bond live in the market this (Monday) morning, but with three other issuers lining up deals and two more borrowers announcing mandates the pipeline of forthcoming new issues and roadshows is well stocked.

Banca Popolare di Milano maintained a promise to investors to issue a sizeable covered bond once a year when it on Tuesday sold a Eu750m five year obbligazioni bancarie garantite issue, an official at the issuer told The Cover.

Banca Popolare di Milano, Kutxa and Swedbank Mortgage accessed the benchmark covered bond market this (Tuesday) morning to offer investors a medley of new euro issues after a day of preparation yesterday that one syndicate banker said was necessitated by limited liquidity in the market.

Swedbank Mortgage and Banca Popolare di Milano are lining up new issues that will probably be executed tomorrow (Tuesday), after syndicate bankers said the market opened strongly today.

Moody’s downgraded Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) from A1 to A2, on stable outlook, yesterday (Wednesday), because of sizeable challenges facing the Italian bank.