Germany

After mandating leads for a Eu1bn 10 year public sector backed Pfandbrief on Tuesday, Bayerische Landesbank said on Wednesday that it had decided to postpone the transaction because of an announcement by Moody’s on Monday that the bank would remain under review for downgrade.

The primary market has been dominated by core supply particularly weighted towards the long end, but a real test of tier two bank issuance, or tier one names from peripheral jurisdictions, has yet to be seen. The timing could be about right for UK, Spanish and Italian deals to enter the market.

LBBW sold its inaugural public mortgage backed transaction on Monday, the first borrower to bring a deal on a Monday morning since late March. A long awaited trade from Crédit Mutuel CIC Home Loan was also announced. Leads took indications of interest this morning for the borrower’s debut Obligations à l'Habitat, which follows BNP Paribas’ first euro outing in the OH format at the end of last week.

As the first half of the year draws to a close, the original 2010 predictions for total covered bond issuance in 2011 from most analysts appear exceptionally conservative. Several analysts have revised their estimates, and predictions for covered bond issuance over the next six months are in the Eu80bn-100bn range.

HSBC became the latest issuer to tap the dollar market on Tuesday, pricing an inaugural $1.25bn three year deal. In contrast to euro denominated supply, which in H2 2011 is not expected to match the record amount issued in the first six months of the year, dollar issuance is expected to expand. German and Italian issuers are understood to be preparing debut dollar benchmarks, and the South Korean government today encouraged certain banks to increase issuance.

Covered bond bankers expect the Greek parliament to approve austerity measures in today’s vote, but even if that happens, they do not expect much of a relief rally. If the measures are not approved then it’s likely that the consequences will be catastrophic.

Four major investors talked to The Cover about their near term strategy and thinking. They do not think much will change, even if there is a positive Greek outcome. Though two of them felt sentiment could improve a little if the prospective Bankia IPO is successful, confidence in the banking sector is not in great shape.

All eyes are on the Greek vote this Wednesday and the start of the new quarter on Friday. Until then, the primary market is likely to be quiet. Aside from those issuers that have already mandated, there are rumours that two or three German borrowers are lining up to do dollar denominated benchmarks. The secondary market has seen some flow, and after recent heavy selling, interest has been more two way with some clients tentatively picking up cheap peripheral bonds and others tempted to pick up long dated core paper yielding over 4%.

The covered bond sector saw only one trade this week, a small German deal from an inaugural issuer — precisely the sort of funding that would be expected to work in a difficult market environment. The outlook for next week does not look much more promising either — although there is a fair chance HSBC will issue its inaugural dollar benchmark.

The spotlight remains firmly on the Greek tragedy with bankers anxiously awaiting fresh developments in the hope that there may be some sort of reprieve. Issuers are well funded and can probably sit it out for now but the omens do not look promising. Bank traders say that selling pressure on the peripheral covered bond markets has continued unabated and, with many banks believed to be sitting on significant inventory, there is an increased risk of near term spread widening.

Germany’s ING-DiBa kept primary supply alive on Wednesday, pricing one of the tightest five year covered bonds of the year. As an inaugural Pfandbrief, Eu500m in size and five years in maturity, the trade was never likely to struggle. Syndicate officials expect no further issuance this week, however, as few borrowers can bring deals which boast similarly attractive qualities.

Abbey, Compagnie de Financement Foncier (CFF), Dexia Kommunalbank AG, Erste Bank, La Caixa and UniCredit all made presentations to UK based investors at an event sponsored by Crédit Agricole CIB this week. Whilst it was clear that many issuers are well advanced in their funding for this year, and seem to have plenty of liquidity to draw on, it is also clear that when the funding window re-opens, issuance is likely to take-off.