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China’s move to open up its domestic bond market to more foreign investment is being rightly applauded. But investors should be wary of the risks in a market that still has serious problems with governance and disclosure.
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Banks are in the grip of an era of regulatory fines. Boston Consulting Group (BCG) estimates that since the 2008 financial crisis banks globally have paid $321bn in fines, an average of $40bn a year. Most have been levied by US banking agencies, with the EU claiming that it has levied 800% more in bank penalties than its 28 member states have added together. The record fine to date is the $13bn paid by JP Morgan in 2013 in settlement of mortgage backed securities (MBS) violations.
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In this week’s round-up, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) considers launching A-share related derivatives in Hong Kong after MSCI’s inclusion, Citi launches two onshore bond indices, and the Chinese premier says M&A by foreign companies is welcome in the Mainland.
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Market conditions should be set by tangible data points. Pricing trillions of dollars of financial products based on the estimates of a small elite of submitters, however tightly regulated these days, is no longer tenable, and a change is due.
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At various points over the last five years, and even before that, those in euro corporate bonds have grown excited about the establishment of the long dated market. However, the 20 year to 30 year area of the curve has been the least predictable and most difficult thing to hit — the one iron in the market’s golf bag.
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As the first half comes to an end, the ECM market appears concerned that Hong Kong has lost its title as the top IPO destination in the world, slipping behind China and the US. The drop may be disappointing but market watchers should not read too much into that. The city’s exchange is on much stronger footing this year when compared to 2016.
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In the five years or so since the Libor scandal broke, or the 10 years since Libor itself broke as the financial crisis laid waste to interbank borrowing, the rate itself has done just fine.
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The Asia expat world is small, and in Hong Kong it is even smaller. Small enough that you often bump into someone you know at the supermarket. So it is not surprising that often people just want to enjoy some anonymity.
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The entry of A-shares into MSCI’s emerging market index was quickly dismissed by China bears as a non-event, given the tiny weighting Chinese equities will have in the index. But sceptics should learn from history that small weightings often make a big difference to RMB internationalisation — and MSCI’s A-share inclusion might just be an example of that.
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Part of the selling point of covered bonds is that they are a relatively easy to understand, safe investment. But this has become less true over time, especially in conditional pass through structures. It's time for a more unified approach.
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It's been uncanny how all of Europe’s recently failing financial institutions have failed in just the right way to ensure the most favourable outcome for the competent authorities.
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Mark Carney’s Mansion House speech last week was a reminder of the progress global regulators have made in the wake of the 2008 crisis, and the dangers of throwing that away.