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How complex is too complex? The market was left wondering just that after last week’s additional tier one trade from BBVA, which ticked every regulatory box imaginable. It might have suited the bank, but it may also have made it tougher for others.
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As the UK economy flatlines, there are calls to ginger up the banking sector. Dividing one of the nationalised banks into a network of German-style regional lenders is a creative idea. But it would not address the lack of growth, nor is the UK ready for such a fundamental reform.
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Accountants are the astrologers of the modern world. Crouched among their foot-thick tomes of lore, they etch out arcane charts and tables designed to uncover hidden truth — and foretell the future.
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Blog is pleased to confirm that in the banking community no one is too set in their ways to not make a radical about face, throw off old, accepted ideas and embrace a new set of ideals.
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The suggestion by Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Dutch finance minister and head of the Eurogroup, that senior bail-in could become the norm in bank bail-outs has spooked the markets. The subsequent retraction was an attempt to reflect the politically acceptable view that the Cyprus situation is a one-off. But in fact he had articulated perfectly how bank bondholders should view their investments. Bail-in needs to be priced in before denial once again takes hold.
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Taiwanese banks are under fire for their poor profit margins, with frenzied competition in the market their biggest problem. Banking consolidation might seem the obvious way out, but this doesn’t look likely. In any case, it would not cure all the sector’s ills.
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Cyprus’s need for a bail-out has been known for months. A week ago, no one in financial markets was worrying about it. Suddenly, the precipice metaphors are getting wheeled out again. The botched series of attempts to spread the pain to Cypriot depositors are perhaps the clumsiest own goal of the crisis so far. But what did the planners get wrong — and did they get anything right?
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Conspiracy or cock-up? What on earth were the eurozone authorities trying to achieve by letting Cyprus even consider breaking the spirit, if not the letter, of insured depositor protection? Perhaps it was just a mistake. Or perhaps not.
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The botched bank job in Cyprus has clearly thrown in a spanner in the works for Asian bond bankers, but they have shown before that they can work around problems from Europe. The biggest hurdles are not fundamental, they are technical. The sheer scale of supply building up now means bankers are in for a rocky ride over the next few months.
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Demand among Asian private bank investors for subordinated debt from both European FIG issuers and domestic names has been under pressure. As Aberdeen Asset Management meets those investors in advance of a potential Reg S perpetual transaction, it must get its message right and think carefully about execution.