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Issuance to pick up, but funding officials could favour more attractive senior unsecured deals
Issuers may be lured to refinance maturing Pfandbriefe amid benign funding conditions
Central bank meetings suppress weekly covered bond volumes to their second lowest levels this year
More credence should be placed on recent deals as secondary curves trade wide of new issues
Non-eurozone deals are attracting big books and tight pricing
Although investors want sterling risk, issuers are not queueing up to issue
Although demand could support a 15 year deal, issuers are reluctant to lock in higher spreads
French, German and Dutch banks are forecasted to print a combined benchmark volume of around €75bn, with 2024 looking like another year of positive net supply
Covered bond benchmark issuance in euros had reached €175bn by early November 2023, suggesting the market was on track to reach €185bn for the year — somewhat less than 2022’s record of a little over €200bn. Although gross volumes are expected to decline a little in 2024, they are likely to remain well above average and, in the absence of central bank support, further pressure on spreads is expected.
EU Parliament and Council have reached a provisional agreement on EPBD but 'devil is in the details'
Senior spreads are tight and covered bonds risk widening further
Dutch banks are changing the composition of their green pools
More time needed, but Pfandbriefe cover pools should be safe
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One or two deals may happen next week, but it is unlikely -
Cost of long dated deals too much for borrowers despite clamour
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But rates uncertainty to keep borrowers away from the long end
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Index will use levels from PricingDirect
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Issuers will be hoping to pre-empt January's likely spread widening
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Relieved market enjoys a rally, but weaker names are still out of favour
