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Turbulent market conditions of the Middle East war have pushed bond issuers and investors to try new things
A swift response is tempting, but lenders should avoid kneejerk reaction
Talk of de-dollarisation has evaporated. The dollar market remains the undisputed king of financing
Inflation caused by war threatens budding recovery in commercial real estate
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October may have had the highest ever monthly volume for green bond issuance, but there is still one major capital markets sector that has yet to join the market — and it’s high time that it should. -
The corporate hybrid capital market is a fragile origami designed to please rating agencies, tax authorities, accountants and investors all at once. Standard & Poor’s disrupted it last week by stripping equity credit from 29 deals. The market will get over this. But fundamentally, it remains in denial: hybrids as they stand are not a stable, reliable product.
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For the last seven years investors have fretted about whether the emerging markets would be taken down as the innocent bystander in first the global financial crisis and then the eurozone crisis. So it was with a touch of schadenfreude that we read Fitch’s report this week that said the tables have turned: US investors now see emerging markets as the top risk to US credit markets over the next year.
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Banks may have become safer places to invest, but investors in senior unsecured bank debt have been shunted down the capital structure. However, senior spreads do not reflect this new credit risk, especially compared with covered bond spreads.
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The Middle East has gone from one of the most boring regions in emerging markets to one of the most interesting, which is a good thing — not least because rates buyers are turning central and eastern Europe into a snooze-fest.
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Chinese borrowers have unsettled loans bankers by either slashing the size or the margin of their dollar loans at the last minute. The moves have been criticised by lenders forced to gain approvals from their credit committees all over again. But banks need to adapt quickly. With China’s credit environment changing at such a rapid pace, such tactics are only likely to become more frequent.
