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Turbulent market conditions of the Middle East war have pushed bond issuers and investors to try new things
A swift response is tempting, but lenders should avoid kneejerk reaction
Talk of de-dollarisation has evaporated. The dollar market remains the undisputed king of financing
Inflation caused by war threatens budding recovery in commercial real estate
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The green bond wave is set to rise higher in 2016 but, as before, most of the deals will not help the environment much. One bond that did was sold in the closing days of 2015 — but such deals are still bought only by a small fraction of investors.
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The principle of pari-passu among bondholders lays dead and buried. The Bank of Portugal’s decision to select only five of Novo Banco’s 52 senior bonds for bail-in last week has established a new precedent for bank resolutions, and what a fine mess it has created. -
The green bond wave is set to rise higher in 2016, but as before, most of the deals will not help the environment much. One bond that did was sold in the closing days of 2015 — but such deals are still bought only by a small fraction of investors.
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Equity markets had an inauspicious start to 2016, as China triggered yet another global sell-off and a new circuit breaker only added to the volatility. Monday was officially the worst-ever start for Chinese shares, but market participants shouldn’t read too much into the turbulence.
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Latin American bond bankers are already complaining about a bare January pipeline, and a poor first day’s trading in global markets has even prevented several US issuers from getting their funding for the year going. But this should not make Lat Am borrowers hesitate once they are ready for market: conditions are unlikely to get better.
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As Middle Eastern banks are priced out of deals in their own region by international lenders with lower funding costs, they need to find more deals further afield in Africa and Asia to make decent returns.
