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Turbulent market conditions of the Middle East war have pushed bond issuers and investors to try new things
A swift response is tempting, but lenders should avoid kneejerk reaction
Talk of de-dollarisation has evaporated. The dollar market remains the undisputed king of financing
Inflation caused by war threatens budding recovery in commercial real estate
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The Italian government and Banca Popolare di Bari’s board are proud that work has begun on dealing with the country’s non-performing loans (NPLs) problem, only six weeks after the new guarantee scheme was signed into law. But the hard parts are still to come.
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The recent disclosure by Wikileaks of a conversation between three senior directors at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised the uncomfortable topic of the Greek debt crisis, which shows few signs of abating. The conversations suggested political tensions in the European Union will get worse, not better.
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When Mozambique was forced to disclose a near $800m bilateral agreement part way through the exchange offer for Ematum bonds, investors were angry. But even with that last hiccup, they’ve been gifted a bargain.
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Much of the UK media just cannot leave the prospect of an uncovered — or, to use the common but incorrect parlance, “failed” — sovereign debt auction alone. Even when the UK Debt Management Office introduces a new mechanism to improve price discovery, stories are littered with references to boosting demand.
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Public outrage around tax avoidance, set ablaze by the Luxembourg Leaks last year and now superheated by the recent “Panama Papers”, is becoming visceral. And public disgust is a pretty reliable leading indicator of big trouble for banks.
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It goes without saying that things have not gone according to plan for Asia’s equity capital markets this past quarter. The numbers are sobering and the reality is that ECM has seen some fundamental shifts as deal origination and execution become more non-traditional. But that does not have to be a bad thing.
