CEE Bonds

Emerging market currencies and bond yields were battered this week as old school contagion — the like of which has been absent for many years — infected the market as the Turkish lira crashed. But there is hope that a bounce back for many of these countries could be imminent, as it was after the 2013 taper tantrum. Francesca Young reports.

Banks with major exposures to Turkey were getting hammered after a loss of financial market confidence pushed the country towards a crisis at the beginning of the week. But analysts suggest that any fears of contagion into the European banking sector are overdone.

Within a fortnight, the Republic of Turkey is planning to announce “additional sources of financing” to fill a $2.5bn gap in its 2018 external bond funding plans, Berat Albayrak, the country's finance minister, said on an investor conference call on Thursday afternoon. Albayrak also said Turkey is not in talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and ruled out capital controls.

The collapse in the Turkish lira has stoked fears as to how the nation’s borrowers will repay their foreign currency debt just as the country's foreign exchange reserves are shrinking.

Turkey’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, is holding an investor call at 2pm London time today. Over 5,000 participants are registered for the call and will be looking to see if the politician can bring calm to the crisis engulfing Turkish and wider emerging markets.

EM bond investors are watching Turkish banks closely, as some of the banks have heavy maturities falling due in the next year and capital ratios are being battered by the huge drop in the lira. But DCM bankers are telling these issuers that the lower levels may mean there are opportunities for buy-backs.

Gazprom may have stepped away from the international capital markets but its liquidity position remains strong enough to keep it afloat for the foreseeable future, provided the diplomatic situation between Russia and the US does not worsen.

Good old fashioned contagion has led the worsening situation in the Turkish market battering the rest of emerging markets this week as a plummeting lira and spiking Turkish CDS levels spooked buyers across CEEMEA and Latin America. Even western Europe has been feeling the heat as investors start to fret about Turkish exposure.

Asia’s offshore bond market ran to a near stand-still this week, with just one issuer selling a dollar bond. While the typical summer lull is to blame for at least some of the quiet, bankers were divided on whether the crisis in Turkey has made things worse for Asian issuers.

The Turkish lira rebounded strongly on Tuesday morning in London while sovereign CDS rallied 40bp — but investors are still calling for more action and concerns remain high that without a big rate rise from the Turkish Central Bank, the selling will shortly resume.

The currency crisis in Turkey has prompted analysts to hone in on the balance sheets of European banks, as they look for the first signs of an increase in income volatility following the introduction of the new IFRS 9 accounting standard.

Equity and debt markets are preparing for a full blown crisis in Turkey and even though its currency pulled back from its early-week lows, investors are worrying about debt defaults.