Brexit

A British vote to leave the European Union could lead to the reopening of a spat between the Bank of England and the European Central Bank over clearing euro-denominated trades. Last year, the UK won a court battle in the European Court of Justice, keeping the right to clear euro-denominated trades outside the eurozone.

Markets watchers in Asia said they were optimistic, as GlobalCapital Asia went to press on Thursday, that next week would be a return to business as usual, given their widespread expectations that the UK would choose to remain in the European Union. But some warned that, irrespective of the outcome, currency risks could spill over to other asset classes, adversely affecting bonds and equities.

Emerging market bond bankers are already looking beyond Brexit as super-tight spreads in central and eastern Europe, caused by a Remain-led rally, make issuance levels look attractive.

Hopes are rising that the public sector bond market could spark back into life next week, as the Remain campaign in the UK’s referendum on European Union membership appears to be gaining momentum.

Stillness reigns in the European corporate bond market, as the UK referendum on its EU membership comes closer. However, the last new issue before Thursday’s poll came as late as Monday, when Christian Dior seized on an optimistic mood in markets to print its well-flagged €350m five year bond.

Financial regulation, for anyone following it closely, is a microcosm of the weaknesses and the strengths of the European Union. It is at times maddening, confusing, incoherent, and vindictive, but gives the countries of Europe a collective voice far stronger than any individual jurisdiction. And, slowly but surely, it is creating a single market for capital.

A vote for the UK to leave the European Union next week could widen the performance rift between sterling and euro bonds and send European credit default swap indices to some of their widest levels this year, Citigroup predicts.

FIG spreads failed to grind tighter again on Tuesday, as investors remained nervous about the result of the UK’s referendum on EU membership this Thursday.

Equity capital markets bankers can feel satisfied that good planning led to an orderly and successful completion for half a dozen IPOs at the beginning of June, before fears of a possible Brexit really bit into market confidence. But they are now starting to assess the likely effects of the referendum on June 23.

Credit markets showed their capacity to surprise this week, as a varied array of issuers, including high yield and emerging market companies, raised funds, even though a referendum that could lead to the first country leaving the European Union is only a week away, writes Jon Hay.

Panic around the rising likelihood of the UK choosing to leave the European Union in a referendum on June 23 sent European and US markets into turmoil this week, with volatility jumping as traders struggled to prepare for the two possible outcomes.

Capital markets this week finally faced up to the possibility of the UK voting to leave the European Union in next Thursday’s referendum. There was a distinct whiff of panic in European bond markets, after latest polls showed the Leave campaign was not only gaining momentum but establishing a lead, prompting investors to race into safe haven assets such as Bunds and US Treasuries and selling out of bonds of issuers most likely to be affected by Brexit.