Early elections look likely as fallout from a nuclear deal with the US takes its toll
An incendiary row over a controversial Indo-US nuclear deal has exploded in India’s political establishment and now threatens to put an end to prime minister Manmohan Singh’s government, before its five-year term is complete. India, it seems, is gearing up for early elections next year.
The Left parties accuse the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) of having surrendered India’s sovereignty by inking the energy agreement with the US in July. The support of these parties is critical to the UPA, but the former have warned the government against taking any further steps towards putting the nuclear pact into effect – specifically, negotiating an agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or seeking approval from the Nuclear Suppliers Group.
The result has been frenzied footwork by the government and a detailed defence of the deal by Singh in parliament in August. But even that failed to satisfy the right-wing opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, which, smelling blood, called for a vote – a move that nearly torpedoed the government then and there.
To defuse the situation and buy time to work out a compromise, the government has set up a panel – which includes Left party leaders – to look into the implications for India’s strategic interests in the so-called 123 agreement as well as the Hyde Act, the legislation passed by the US Congress last December.
The Left parties’ ideological disdain for an India-US alliance – which they view as a seismic break with India’s historical commitment to non-alignment as well as the right to set an independent foreign policy – means an amicable resolution won’t be easy. Communist Party of India (Marxist) general secretary Prakash Karat has objected to the Indian government’s vote against Iran in the September 2005 IAEA resolution to refer that country to the UN Security Council over its nuclear plans, and India’s recent joint military exercises with the US in the Indian Ocean. Yet, if elections are indeed held early next year, opinion polls say it is unlikely that the animosity of the Left parties to the Indo-US pact will win them many votes.
Be prepared
Political brinkmanship continued in early October, with the government refusing to freeze negotiations on the deal for six months, the latest of the Left’s demands. Meanwhile, all parties appeared to be preparing for an election sometime next year. The Congress Party formally anointed Rahul Gandhi, son of former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi and party president Sonia Gandhi, as general secretary of the party, a move that some say signals that he may be ready for a bigger role should the Congress return to power.
Some analysts predict that an early election could result in the return to power of a Congress-led coalition government, though perhaps a less fractious one. “Mayawati, who heads the Bahujan Samaj Party (a party of backward castes that won a key state election early this year), is likely to emerge as an important source of support for the Congress party, and could diminish the importance of the Left,” says Rajeev Malik, executive director at Asia Economic Research at JP Morgan Chase. If that prediction holds out, it could prove easier for a new government to seal the pact with the US.”
The US is pushing hard for early closure: Washington is eager to have US legislators vote on the deal by next summer, after which it will become difficult for Congress to transact business in the run-up to November elections. Moreover, the Republicans would like to claim credit for transforming the US relationship with India. Ashley Tellis, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a key negotiator on the deal, has written that this new relationship, if sustained by future administrations “will portend enormous consequences for the future balance of power in Asia and globally to the advantage of the United States”.
Yet, despite their willingness to do a deal, one or both governments may well run out of time.—K.R.