By Lucien Chauvin
His vision of democratic socialism has galvanized vast swathes of Latin America. His alternative economic model for the region has helped refocus the debate on Latin development. His oil wealth has fuelled unprecedented largesse. Like it or not, Hugo Chavez is a force to be reckoned with. By Lucien Chauvin
His vision of democratic socialism has galvanized vast swathes of Latin America. His alternative economic model for the region has helped refocus the debate on Latin development. His oil wealth has fuelled unprecedented largesse. Like it or not, Hugo Chavez is a force to be reckoned with.
Hugo Rafael Chavez Frias is far from being the first polarizing leader in Latin America. But unlike his predecessors, Venezuela’s firebrand president came to power through democratic means, which he has used to expand his influence.Chavez’s sway goes beyond the purely political or symbolic – very different from his mentor, Cuba’s Fidel Castro. In the past two years alone, Chavez has promised governments around the world more than $30 billion in investment, thanks largely to Venezuela’s vast oil wealth.
In that time, Chavez has spent $5 billion purchasing Argentine debt, more than $1 billion supporting education, health and energy programmes in Bolivia, and has provided Cuba and other Caribbean states with low-cost oil. He has promised an oil refinery to Nicaragua and has discussed the same with Ecuador. The price tag for these projects tops $7 billion.
His political savvy and bloody-minded resolve to throw off so-called foreign interference in Latin American affairs have won him a huge following across the western hemisphere. They have redrawn the geopolitical map of the region and have galvanized a resurgent leftist nationalism among many Latin states and their marginalized populations. At the same time, they have created a legion of anti-Chavistas, who see the colourful former military officer as the single most important threat to democracy and free enterprise in the region.
Extreme makeover
Chavez has been remaking Venezuela ever since he catapulted onto the scene in 1992 in his failed military coup to overthrow then-president Carlos Andres Perez. A few years in prison for the incident did nothing to dampen his popularity and power, which he has now consolidated into a monolithic block.
Since taking office in early 1999, Chavez has seated a constituent assembly, pushed through a new constitution, won a special election in 2000, returned to power after a two-day coup in 2002, survived a recall election in 2004 and won a new six-year term in 2006. He is now campaigning for a December referendum to approve a new constitution that would eliminate term limits and let him run again.
Jose Poyo, an indigenous Venezuelan congressman close to Chavez, says the referendum is nothing more than “the perfection of the Bolivarian constitution approved in 1999. We are not changing the spirit of the constitution, just adapting it to the new reality.
“With president Chavez, we are building true democracy based on socialism for the 21st century. It is people’s power that is democratic, participatory, pluri-cultural and multi-ethnic,” Poyo tells Emerging Markets.
The exact opposite is heard from opponents. “This is a dictatorship that has hijacked democracy and has destroyed our economy. The only thing that exists here is oil money,” says Ana Maria Di Leo, chief economist of Veneconomia.Such divergent opinion is shared across the region, with some governments cozying up to the Venezuelan leader and others virulently opposed to him. Many, like Brazil, are in the middle, accepting Chavez’s eccentric style, but keeping a certain distance.
The pro-Chavez camp includes Latin America’s poorest countries, such as Bolivia and Nicaragua, as well as Cuba. Ecuador has one foot in the door and Paraguay could swing towards Chavez if former bishop Fernando Lugo wins the presidency next April.
Chavez’s largesse has also translated into a commitment to found an alternative Latin development bank. “This will be a development bank with a social commitment that will deal with the asymmetries in Latin America. We will definitively rid ourselves of the strangulating and humiliating conditions of the IMF and World Bank,” Chavez’s finance minister, Rodrigo Cabezas told Emerging Markets this year.
The Chavez approach
US congressman Gregory Meeks, a free-trade Democrat from New York, is less convinced by Chavez’s approach to social and economic development. “Chavez is basically challenging others, saying that his way is the best way to look out for the poor. In the end, I think that his method will prove unsuccessful, and I have told him that. This idea of pitting one system against another does not benefit anyone,” he tells Emerging Markets.
Thomas Shannon, the top US diplomat for Latin America, is similarly circumspect about the prospects of Chavez’s long-term success. “Just about every country recognizes that to be successful you need to have the US as a partner. Even Venezuela recognizes that,” he tells Emerging Markets.
Venezuelans, it seems, would beg to differ. According to recent polls, the majority planning to vote on the constitutional changes in December agree with Chavez. Late-September surveys found 47% in favour of the reforms and 27% opposed. One thing that might get voters to the poll is the reduction in the daily work day from eight to six hours.
If oil prices remain high – Chavez predicts that the price will be close to $100 per barrel by the end of the decade – there is a strong possibility that Hugo Chavez will be around for a long time to come.