There has been minimal secondary trading in Asia’s equity markets this year, showing that investors have still not regained their appetite for risk after the Christmas break. Bankers think they are still willing to invest in good names at a good price — consumer stocks or other defensive companies, for instance — but there is not much appetite for punchier deals.
Chinese New Year falls on January 23 this year, and some investors will be away for weeks around this holiday. That has put any meaningful business — whether IPOs or follow-ons — on hold in North Asia until February, forcing bankers to turn to Southeast Asian clients to drum up business. They can rely on reasonable domestic demand across this part of Asia, but the true emerging market nature of most countries in the region means they may struggle to find foreign investors to back these deals in any size.
That is not to say that business cannot get done, but certain conditions need to be met.
First, investors want defensive names. Supermarkets and utilities are still a safe bet, and after a strong performance last year any deals from these sectors are likely to find good demand from risk-averse investors.
Second, the deals on offer will need to promise enough liquidity to give investors piece of mind that they can get out of their investments easily if — or when — they decide they’ve had enough.
Bankers should discourage any potential issuers in unpopular sectors like the financial institutions space, a congested sector in Hong Kong in 2011, especially nearer the end of the year. Financial institutions raised $33.9bn from IPOs and follow-ons across Asia ex-Japan last year and investors need a break from these deals for a while.
The market is also not in strong enough shape to return to smaller cap, growth names. Some investors are already starting to look at SMEs as sources of future returns, but they are not quite ready to buy yet. The European crisis, the unknown extent of an economic slowdown in China, uncertainty on the Korean peninsula, volatile secondary markets and uncomfortably high bank funding costs: these are all problems that investors will watch carefully before jumping back into the market this year.
Asia’s battered investor base should be treated with care over the next few weeks, when bankers are frantically trying to find deals to keep themselves busy. Otherwise, these investors might head off on holiday for Chinese New Year and not come back.