Covered Bonds

BPCE, Credit Mutuel Home loan (CM-CIC) and Axa Bank issued French covered bonds this week with Axa issuing its first transaction under a new and lower rated Belgian ownership structure.

Helaba, Deutsche Bank and Deutsche Pfandbriefbank (PBB) had little trouble accessing the Pfandbrief market this week with a series of deals that were priced flat to their curves.

An Estonian covered bond could soon be due in the market after Moody’s rated Luminor Bank’s programme this week — the first to be structured under the country’s newly established law. The rating comes after the European Central Bank granted Luminor a license to issue covered bonds in December.

NordLB Luxembourg was expected to arrive in the market with its inaugural renewable energy covered bond late last year, having completed a market programme and mandated lead managers. On Thursday it finally plucked up the courage to re-announce the long-awaited deal — the first to be ever issued under the country’s new law.

Credit Mutuel Home Loan SFH (CM-CIC) completed a busy week in the euro covered bond market with a €1.25bn 10 year offering on Thursday. The deal emerged amid growing concern that euro covered bond supply will fall, as borrowers like SCBC, Danske Bank and Nordea turn to local currency markets, while others see better alternative funding opportunities, or simply bide their time.

Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen Girozentrale (Helaba) and Bawag enjoyed heavy demand for their covered bonds, issued on Wednesday, amid growing concern that January’s usual supply surge is about to come to an abrupt end.

Covered bond investors are increasingly confident about taking on duration and credit risk as yields are set to be stable and spreads should remain well supported, an asset manager told GlobalCapital on Wednesday.

Covered bond issuers Bawak PSK and Helaba have mandated leads for deals that are likely to be launched on Wednesday — signalling a slackening in Tuesday’s much faster pace.

BPCE took the lion’s share demand for the six covered bonds issued on Tuesday with its stand out two-part offering that was priced flat to the curve — along with other deals from OP Mortgage Bank, Deutsche Pfandbriefbank, UniCredit Bank Austria and Axa Bank Belgium, which issued its first transaction under a new and new and lower rated ownership structure.

Navigating the covered bond market will not be without its challenges in 2020. The Targeted Longer Term Refinancing Operation (TLTRO), European Central Bank deposit tiering and the Covered Bond Purchase Programme have collectively distorted the market, but added to this concoction is the impact of negative interest rates. Against this backdrop issuers, investors and investment bankers gathered in Munich in November to discuss the outlook for covered bonds. It is likely that new issue premiums will gradually tighten, but the path is unlikely to be smooth. January is typically the busiest month, but in 2019, issuers that funded this early paid the highest spreads. And, with the ECB expected to buy in the region of €4.5bn covered bonds a month, issuers will not feel compelled to move early. But the ECB monetary policy has unwelcome implications. Covered bonds have begun to lose value against government bonds, and this will extend if the ECB is unable to loosen restrictions on government bond purchases.

Four covered bond issuers from Germany, Austria, France and Belgium have announced deals that are expected to be launched on Tuesday and will be heavily bought by the European Central Bank.

A lack of supply relative to 2019 and much more aggressive central bank buying ensured that Banco Sabadell, Royal Bank of Canada, Deutsche Bank and RLB Oberösterreich were able to price their respective covered bonds flat to fair value on Monday.