Covered Bonds

Covered bond issuers Bawak PSK and Helaba have mandated leads for deals that are likely to be launched on Wednesday — signalling a slackening in Tuesday’s much faster pace.

BPCE took the lion’s share demand for the six covered bonds issued on Tuesday with its stand out two-part offering that was priced flat to the curve — along with other deals from OP Mortgage Bank, Deutsche Pfandbriefbank, UniCredit Bank Austria and Axa Bank Belgium, which issued its first transaction under a new and new and lower rated ownership structure.

Navigating the covered bond market will not be without its challenges in 2020. The Targeted Longer Term Refinancing Operation (TLTRO), European Central Bank deposit tiering and the Covered Bond Purchase Programme have collectively distorted the market, but added to this concoction is the impact of negative interest rates. Against this backdrop issuers, investors and investment bankers gathered in Munich in November to discuss the outlook for covered bonds. It is likely that new issue premiums will gradually tighten, but the path is unlikely to be smooth. January is typically the busiest month, but in 2019, issuers that funded this early paid the highest spreads. And, with the ECB expected to buy in the region of €4.5bn covered bonds a month, issuers will not feel compelled to move early. But the ECB monetary policy has unwelcome implications. Covered bonds have begun to lose value against government bonds, and this will extend if the ECB is unable to loosen restrictions on government bond purchases.

Four covered bond issuers from Germany, Austria, France and Belgium have announced deals that are expected to be launched on Tuesday and will be heavily bought by the European Central Bank.

A lack of supply relative to 2019 and much more aggressive central bank buying ensured that Banco Sabadell, Royal Bank of Canada, Deutsche Bank and RLB Oberösterreich were able to price their respective covered bonds flat to fair value on Monday.

Raiffeisenlandesbank Oberösterreich has signalled that it will issue a new 15 year covered bond in the euro market next week, with the Austrian bank keen to book its spot in an extremely crowded market.

Issuers this week have steered clear of negative yielding covered bonds, choosing longer maturities for their securities. Crédit Agricole Italia went as far as 25 years, while on the other end was Santander UK marketing a seven year tenor.

Foreign and domestic banks flocked to the UK this week as they sought to take advantage of stellar funding conditions in the sterling market. Bankers said this was the first chance issuers had to benefit from opportunities in the currency following December’s general election, which removed a lot of short-term uncertainty around Brexit.

The sterling bond market, usually buoyant enough at the start of a year, got a Brexit boost this week, allowing public sector borrowers and financial institutions to take full advantage. Investors piled into deals following greater clarity on the UK’s looming exit from the EU but before possible volatility around the January 31 departure date. Burhan Khadbai and David Freitas report.

Crédit Agricole Italia marketed a dual-tranche bond with eight year and 25 year maturities. A steeper curve helped the longer tranche offer a higher pickup against the shorter bond, but investors still placed hefty orders on both tenors.

Danske Mortgage Bank, Santander UK, Raiffeisenlandesbank Hypothekenpfandbrief and UniCredit Bank AG were marketing covered bonds on Wednesday, steering well clear of negative yields by tapping into healthy demand for long dated assets.

The Sonia-linked covered bond market is showing signs that it is 'maturing', with Commonwealth Bank of Australia launching a new deal in the format on Tuesday and Coventry Building Society looking to follow in the footsteps of two of its compatriots early in 2020.