Turkey

Confidence in Turkish assets hit fresh lows this week as investors struggled to digest a fresh wave of volatility after its central bank governor was sacked following an interest rate hike. With government and bank funding needs to be met in the international market, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has a big job on its hands in regaining investor confidence — though some say the damage has already been done.

As emerging market IPOs continue to draw investors into countries many have never invested before, Turkey remains an obvious absentee. The country could be an EM equity giant but political decisions by its government continue to hinder Turkish businesses.

The shock sacking of Turkey’s third central bank governor in two years confirms to investors that the country lives in a world of its own — one in which central bank independence and fiscal prudence come second to the ideologies of the leader.

An imminent bond issue from Turkey is looking unlikely, investors say, after the abrupt sacking on Saturday of Naci Ağbal, governor of the central bank, just a day after he had raised interest rates by 200bp. Both hard and local currency bonds have sold off and market participants fear a balance of payments crisis.

A wave of central bank rate hikes across emerging markets over the last week, particularly in CEEMEA, has stimulated investor confidence amid a volatile period in global markets. The recent rise in US Treasury yields had threatened to pull money away from EM, with a further risk of weakening local currencies.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has brought relief to emerging market investors by exceeding market participants’ expectations and delivering a 200bp rate hike.

Turkey's international bond market access is once again in question. Rising US Treasury yields have put affordable dollar funding beyond the sovereign for now, bankers believe, undoing the good done by a move back to orthodox monetary policy late last year, after months of inflation and a plunging lira. A rate hike next week may help restore issuance prospects, writes Mariam Meskin.

Turkish lender Akbank is in the syndicated loan market with its debut ESG deal, according to sources. The bank has been able to tighten pricing on the refinancing, meaning that it has enough competitively priced funding for it not to need to come to the bond market.

Rosatom, the Russian nuclear power company, is using a $300m sustainability-linked loan for part of the financing of Akkuyu, the first nuclear power plant to be built in Turkey — a sign of how fast and far the concept of sustainability-linked finance is spreading.

Expectations of increased demand for emerging market local currency bonds are starting to wane, as the macroeconomic backdrop and interest rate volatility point to a stronger dollar in the short term.

A sustained revival of confidence in Turkish markets has caused the lira and other metrics to improve in recent days. That, market participants said, has strengthened the country's standing in international debt markets to the point where it could consider a long dated new issue, though concerns around rising US rates are simmering away in the background.

Top tier Turkish lender Akbank will launch a syndicated loan refinancing within weeks, according to sources. The borrower is likely to get tighter margins than for its last loan offering in October 2020.