Gannett Welsh & Kotler will look to shed some of its Treasuries with maturities of 23 or more years and the May of '16 STRIPS it owns for shorter-maturity agencies if the yield on the 30-year, which currently stands at 5.51%, reaches 5.30%. David Carter, lead portfolio manager for $400 million in taxable-fixed income, says he would make the move to defend against a possible rise in interest rates as economic growth picks back up following the current slowdown and round of Federal Reserve rate cuts. He says he could reduce the total amount of long-maturity bonds from 19% of the total portfolio to about 10%, and pegs the possibility of the long-bond yield falling to 5.30% at 50-50. He expects rates to continue to drift down as the economy slows, pointing in particular to the drop-off in consumer confidence, which he believes is "a huge driver" of the economy. He is awaiting more easing this year by the Fed, though he declines to speculate as to how much, and adds that a combination of loose fiscal and monetary policy could begin to produce a rebound by late 2001 or early next year, though not any sooner. "I think if it's going to be v-shaped it's going to be the roundest 'V' I've ever seen," he says.
February 11, 2001