Valuing options on a fixed exchange rate, or on any asset price set by official decree, is problematic. To the casual observer, such options may seem illogical, since the cash rate does not move. Yet active markets have existed on such options despite explicitly pegged exchange rate regimes. Exchange rate crises in which currency pegs were abandoned, such as Mexico (1994), Russia (1998), Brazil (1999), and Argentina (2002) have also shown that options with strikes outside the band are not worthless. Such options can offer valuable information about the probability of a peg holding over a given period. Following is a basis for pricing and evaluating such options using practical methods, and some simple estimation techniques for relative valuation.
April 22, 2002