Pat Moon, portfolio manager at Meridian Investment Managers, says he will swap 10% of the firm's portfolio, or $10 million, from Treasuries to investment-grade corporates, as corporates spreads are bound to tighten with the economic recovery. Moon reasons that some corporate names have seen their spreads over comparable Treasuries widen more than what is justified by their fundamentals, simply because "we are in a very unusual environment" characterized by corporate scandals and geopolitical tensions. He says that a year from now, providing economic conditions remain stable, corporate spreads could tighten by 100 basis points and the 10-year Treasury yield, rise to 4.50-5%.
October 20, 2002