Swap rates increased sharply this week as government bond markets sold off in the early part of the week due to the widely held belief that the war in Iraq will be a short one. This supposition wobbled a little yesterday (Thursday) as the conflict started, and rates decreased a little. Throughout the entire week, whether the market sold off or rallied, swap spreads edged wider. By the close yesterday, both five year and 10 year swap spreads were around 46.5bp mid-market. As medium term spreads have been bid wider, long end spreads have changed very little. Consequently, with 30 year spreads around 31.25bp, the 10s/30s switch has widened to around 15.25bp.
March 21, 2003