Latin America

Bankers said that none of the three names in the visible Lat Am pipeline would be likely to issue any time soon as a sell-off in US rates brought sudden volatility to EM bond markets, even in economies not considered affected by a Donald Trump presidency.

The benign reaction across capital markets to Donald Trump's surprise US presidential election victory did not spread as far as Latin America. A brutal sell-off on Thursday further complicated an already tough picture for Mexican issuers facing uncertain times as participants wonder just how badly a Trump presidency could affect the country, writes Oliver West.

Lat Am bond market participants held varying views on just how bad the market reaction to Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections had been on Wednesday, but most agreed that issuance plans across the region would be on hold for a while as debt prices tumbled.

Remarkable resilience in the face of an uncertain future was the tale of emerging market bond prices on Wednesday as Donald Trump won the presidential election in the US, much to the surprise of EM traders themselves, who expected the risk aversion to last much longer. But the outlook for EM bonds under a Trump presidency is far from rosy. Latin America has been the clear underperformer so far but more pain is expected.

Donald Trump’s shock success in the US presidential election in the early hours of Wednesday met staunch resistance as far as EM asset prices were concerned. But dealers apportioned this to technical factors underpinning the market and warned that the long term impacts of the poll result are yet to be seen. GlobalCapital dissects the impact on EM region by region.

Remarkable resilience in the face of an uncertain future was the tale of emerging market bond prices on Wednesday as Donald Trump won the presidential election in the US, much to the surprise of EM traders themselves, who expected the risk aversion to last much longer. But the outlook for EM bonds under a Trump presidency is far from rosy. Latin America has been the clear underperformer so far but more pain is expected.

The failure of El Salvador’s legislative assembly to approve the issuance of long-term debt has heightened the Central American nation’s liquidity risks to critical levels, with Moody’s slamming the sovereign with a double notch downgrade on Monday.

The largest financial services company in Honduras, Inversiones Atlántida, has begun meeting fixed income investors ahead of a potential debut dollar bond.

Argentina’s return to international bond markets this year broke many records, and its after-market performance has been equally stunning. It has also changed investors’ concerns. Previously preoccupied with court rulings, an unpredictable government, legal technicalities and a curve comprising an assortment of complex instruments, bondholders now are looking at more conventional credit issues and can enjoy a normalised dollar curve with several liquid points. The buyside is now assessing inflation and inflation expectations, GDP growth and FDI, and — crucially — progress on the fiscal deficit.

Luis Caputo had been head of LatAm trading at Deutsche Bank and JP Morgan, but he’d never done a deal as important as the one facing him at the start of 2016. Few — if any — bankers ever do. Argentina’s finance secretary, known in the market as “Toto”, led the nation’s negotiations with holdout creditors, achieving a faster and cheaper resolution than most expected. This has left Caputo confident that the government will be able to do just as good a job in tackling the outstanding issues facing the economy.

Mauricio Macri’s government is having to find a fine balance between fiscal consolidation and suffering too much short term economic and political damage. Markets appear willing to finance gradual change, and economists back the government’s strategy, but improvements need to come quickly.

Emerging markets borrowers may be well funded but they are still not prepared for a Donald Trump victory in the US presidential election next week. While borrowers have completed the majority of their funding for the year, the market is positioned for a Clinton victory, and should she lose, a big sell-off is expected to ensue, particularly in Latin America, as investors look for safe haven assets.