Italy

A UK based covered bond investor spoke to The Cover about the sovereign crisis. He believes the primary market should still be able to function, though the group of issuers capable of doing a deal will be much smaller. Greece is beyond hope, but he says the rest of Europe can still be saved.

UniCredit brought the Italian covered bond market back to life in dramatic fashion on Thursday, offering hopes of market access to other issuers from the jurisdiction. In addition to boasting a record high spread for an Italian issuer, UniCredit reports that the €1bn 10 year trade also carried the tightest ever spread to BTPs, pricing flat to the sovereign curve.

UniCredit reopened the Italian market once again on Thursday, to the surprise of market participants. After almost three months without Italian supply, the national champion followed ING into the 10 year segment, launching a €1bn no grow benchmark. Syndicate officials disagreed over where the deal priced relative to BTPs, with estimates ranging from flat to 10bp over.

ING on Wednesday confounded predictions that a German or Nordic name would end almost two months of inactivity in the covered bond market. The borrower launched a bold €1.75bn 10 year transaction, which offered investors a generous 15bp concession over its outstanding curve, providing the market with an indicator of the higher premiums now needed to print deals.

Prospective buyers of peripheral paper are waiting for imminent Spanish and Italian auctions to indicate market sentiment, said syndicate officials. Meanwhile the covered bond market would benefit from more attention to credit fundamentals, as opposed to an exclusive focus on underlying government bonds, said Morgan Stanley analysts.

A steady supply of high quality Germany SSA paper continues to give the covered bond market hope it will be next in line to reopen. Raiffeisen Landesbank Steiermark is understood to be preparing for a covered trade in early September, and syndicate officials said high quality names from several jurisdictions are assured market access. In the secondary, however, peripheral covered bonds still lag the debt of their respective sovereigns.

EFSF guaranteed covered bonds could be one solution to dwindling access to term funding among Europe’s banks. Even if markets reopen in September, costs are likely to be high across asset classes, particularly senior unsecured, said market participants. Funding constraints may lead banks to shrink their balance sheets, and if unchecked could lead to a grinding credit crunch in the southern eurozone.

After a week of severe fluctuations in all market segments, traders said Monday morning was the quietest day in weeks. Market participants are hoping for a modicum of stability to improve the chances of primary supply at the end of the month and several issuers from core jurisdictions are finalising roadshows in order to come to market, syndicate bankers said. But if new issue premiums are at the top end of expectations, they added, it will reshape the secondary curve — and this may deter some names from returning.

A theoretical 10% or 20% haircut on ECB exchanged Greek government bonds in the public sector cover pools of German banks would have a limited effect on nominal overcollaterlisation (OC). Spanish and Italian pool exposures are much larger and a factor that investors should take into consideration.

French covered bonds have widened in the secondary market following concern that the sovereign could lose its triple-A rating. Meanwhile traders reported buying in Spanish and Italian covered bonds as investors move out of government paper.

Core European investors are much more pessimistic than two months ago, according to Crédit Agricole’s latest sentiment index, which showed an even greater decline in issuer sentiment. Investors expect further deterioration in Spanish and Italian covered bonds, but at a slower rate than over the last two months.

An Italian covered bond investor talks to The Cover about the sovereign market malaise and his position on covered bonds. The increasingly desperate situation shows little sign of relenting, he says, while activity is mostly focused on relative value versus the senior market.