Italy

Korea Housing Finance Corporation has opened books on its second ever covered bond, a $500m five and a half year transaction. US book building has yet to commence, but with the book already twice covered on the back of strong demand from Asia and Europe, a good reception seems likely. The deal is expected to price later today.

The euro primary market remained closed on Monday. The secondary market, however, has been more active, with liquidity present for both core and peripheral paper. Even Portuguese bonds have enjoyed interest, as fast money accounts salivate over double digit yields.

A senior DCM covered bond banker talks to The Cover about the market outlook for the next six weeks which, aside from the sovereign crisis, will also encompass legislative progress on bank resolution regimes, new developments on CRD 4 and how these might impact the covered bond market.

Insurance companies will increase their holdings of covered and government bonds, while reducing their allocation to equity and long term corporate bonds, according to a report from the Bank of International Settlements.

Investors have plenty of cash to put to work and there is scope for modest issuance next week if stable market conditions prevail but thereafter the funding window is expected to move to late August. In the secondary market, spreads are slightly wider but activity is mostly confined to price checking. Italian auctions went well, breeding a little confidence but overall conditions still remain nervous.

Dealers and investors remain shell shocked by recent events. Despite relatively upbeat comments from the buy side and a continuation of the spread correction, reported secondary activity has been muted. Syndicate bankers are looking towards stabilisation of the Bund/swap spread and do not rule out the prospect of issuance, though it may be limited to taps.

Secondary market dealers reported little trading activity on Tuesday and described the market as being dysfunctional. Despite that, some participants are trying to take advantage of this price opacity. After opening very weak, the market has bounced back on rumoured central bank intervention.

The market has been pricing in a catastrophic scenario of sovereign default for some months, but the largest swing in sentiment, where Delta is now at its highest, is in Italy. In the last three trading sessions, Italian government bonds have significantly underperformed German bonds. The five year spread is now 379bp, having widened 140bp in the last week and 40bp since Monday night’s close. Italian government bonds and liquid bank stocks have been aggressively shorted and as a consequence covered bonds have been severely hit.

Hopes for further covered bond issuance have been dashed by peripheral volatility centring around Italy and poor US employment figures, which have weakened market sentiment across asset classes. Prospective issuers are electing to wait, and with holidays in core Europe fast approaching, benchmark supply appears unlikely.

Though the covered bond market remained quiet on Thursday, syndicate officials stressed it had not yet closed for summer. Investors still have cash to put to work, and there is at least one trade expected next week. Negative rating action has damaged market sentiment, however, and closed the window for some peripheral names. Prospective issuers face a forbidding market and increased premiums should they decided to issue.

The primary market has been dominated by core supply particularly weighted towards the long end, but a real test of tier two bank issuance, or tier one names from peripheral jurisdictions, has yet to be seen. The timing could be about right for UK, Spanish and Italian deals to enter the market.

Covered bond bankers expect the Greek parliament to approve austerity measures in today’s vote, but even if that happens, they do not expect much of a relief rally. If the measures are not approved then it’s likely that the consequences will be catastrophic.