Italy

Bank of New Zealand returned to the market on Monday with a long three year benchmark, after postponing a five year trade earlier this month. The change of maturity and capped deal size yielded a far more positive result, with over 100 accounts contributing to the most oversubscribed order book of the year.

The secondary market in covered bonds is in danger of breaking, and though it is not there yet, there are concerns over ‘forced delivery squeezes’ in the repo market which may lead to failed trades. Though it has always been the intention of the European Central Bank to improve liquidity, there are some who now say that it is not doing enough. Covered bonds could risk becoming almost like a private placement market if the current situation persists.

Covered bond spreads have survived sweeping sovereign downgrades by Standard & Poor’s on Friday. Only French issuer Dexia was reported wider on Monday morning, while the LTRO cash injection has ensured short dated Spanish and French paper remains highly sought after.

The strong Italian and Spanish government debt auction results on Thursday have helped government bond yields tumble, which is good news for issuers. But with cheap financing from the ECB still on offer and covered bond spreads still wide to the government market, primary issuance prospects remain dim.

The ECB’s unprecedented refinancing operation may hit covered bond supply at the short-end of the curve, but medium and long-term issuance — the mainstay of the covered bond market — could benefit from greater confidence in banks’ health, bankers told The Cover.

Unless sovereign debt market volatility subsides, it seems likely that publicly placed covered bond financing could remain shut for peripheral issuers in 2012, potentially forcing Spanish and Italian banks into the same category as Portuguese and Greek banks which were unable to access the market at all last year.

Euro benchmark supply will drop in 2012, covered bond analysts predict, despite the product having become the cornerstone of bank funding. Rarely have analysts’ expectations diverged so far, with issuance estimates ranging from €120bn-€190bn.

Covered bonds will become an increasingly important bank finance tool in 2012, but their growing stature will not offset a continued downward ratings migration, Moody’s said in its 2012 outlook. The sovereign debt crisis will heap more pressure on issuer ratings and increase refinancing risk, particularly in Italy and Spain but also in core Europe.

Markets stabilised on Tuesday morning following S&P’s announcement that it may cut sovereign ratings across the eurozone, ending three days of sovereign tightening. Overall the tone remains constructive, according to covered bond traders, with better buying in French and peripheral covered bonds. But with only a couple of weeks of trading to go before year end, and covered bond spreads not following sovereigns tighter, issuers are still most likely to wait for an opportunity in January.

Fitch has downgraded Banco Popolare di Milano’s OBGs from AAA to AA+ and kept them on rating watch negative because of a downgrade of BPM and seven other Italian banks on November 25.

ECB purchasing reached €930m on a settlement basis by the end of last week, with traders reporting buying of German, French, and some Spanish paper in the secondary market. The impact of the programme remains limited, however, and there have been calls for the eurosystem central banks to make bonds purchased under the programme available for bilateral repo purposes.

Despite hopes that the result of Spain’s general election would bolster sagging equities and pull in widening government bond yields, market conditions appear prohibitive at the start of a potentially shortened week.