Italy

Europe’s peripheral covered bond markets are looking over their shoulders after Fitch downgraded Banco Popular Portugal’s covered bonds on Wednesday. This followed downgrades of Greek and Cypriot covered bonds which have left their issuers unable to access emergency ECB repo funding.

The axe of Moody’s has fallen on Cédulas as the agency continues its European wide review on financial institutions. Unlike their Italian peers, many Spanish covered bonds remain double-A rated, and all retain vital access to ECB funding while the primary market becomes ever more elusive.

Moody’s downgraded six Italian covered bond programmes in the first step of a review of 114 banks across 16 European countries. The sweeping cuts left only Intesa San Paolo and UniCredit with double-A ratings and consigned the rest of the Italian covered bond sector to single-A.

Hopes for imminent covered bond issuance dimmed on Monday as the asked for stability proved elusive. With government spreads still widening and background volatility persistent, even top issuers will have to offer positive new issue premiums to compensate buyers, said syndicate officials.

Spread tightening has stalled after the first quarter rally, according to DZ analysts, who urged investors to reposition themselves in preparation for spread widening. But with many investors still on holiday, the secondary market has become easier to move with smaller tickets, and traders said it was too early to draw conclusions from an increase in selling.

Covered bond issuance in the first quarter of 2012 was the second busiest ever for the first quarter. Though euro-denominated issuance fell by 45%, this was offset by a large rise in volumes of other currencies such as sterling, dollars and Australian dollars.

Axa Bank Europe SCF launched its third and largest euro benchmark covered bond on Tuesday, pricing a €1bn trade at the tight end of guidance. Investors seemed untroubled by the rare RMBS collateral, allowing Axa to follow recent French trades in offering a minimal new issue concession.

Spain’s Bankinter launched a long awaited benchmark on Monday, pricing only the fourth euro jumbo in as many weeks. Spreads could widen suddenly if conditions deteriorate, warned analysts, but with supply scarce and curves steep between three to five years, investors will continue to ride the wave of optimism.

Barring a poor outcome from Greece’s private sector initiative, primary supply is poised to pick up, said syndicate bankers, who advised issuers to launch trades while the market remains receptive. Covered bond analysts are lowering their euro benchmark forecasts, however, and investors are concerned about declining issuance.

The secondary covered bond rally rolls on, grinding spreads tighter and pushing yields to their limit. But foresight and fundamentals have played no part in the lust for peripheral paper. As lucrative as the carry trade has been for banks, when things turn sour investors could find themselves trapped.

A higher than expected take-up from a broader number of banks in the European Central Bank’s second long term refinancing operation has provided a lift to what is already a very well bid covered bond market.

Compagnie de Financement Foncier built one of the largest ever orderbooks for a French issuer on Friday, pricing a €2bn 3 1/2 year trade flat to its outstanding curve. Short end trades have flown regardless of name or jurisdiction, and syndicate banks said reverse enquiry for Italian borrowers has now started to build.