Italy

UniCredit has rewritten the rulebook this week by pricing a covered bond 100bp tighter than where the Republic of Italy can fund itself. But, other than Intesa Sanpaolo, it is unlikely any other issuer could follow suit.

UniCredit drew a stellar reception for the first Italian benchmark in almost a year on Tuesday, with the vote of confidence for peripheral risk raising hopes for follow on trades from Italian and Spanish names.

Covered bonds are more stable, higher yielding and offer better protection than sovereign paper, according to Barclays analysts. But liquidity and security also drive investment decisions, and negative government bond yields show how much the market values both, an investor told The Cover.

An asset manager in Frankfurt tells The Cover about breaking the link between covered bonds and their respective sovereigns, investing in peripheral markets, and the problem with regulatory favouritism.

Moody’s cut one Italian covered bond programme but left another unscathed this week, after the issuers amended their programmes to loosen ratings triggers. The rating agency believes relaxing programme standards hurts investors, but at least one borrower has been able to prevent downgrades through sufficient overcollateralisation.

Not so long ago, it was commonly accepted that bank resolution regimes would hobble senior unsecured issuance. Unlike holders of fully protected covered bonds, which cannot be bailed in, senior noteholders faced the threat of haircuts in the event of bank insolvencies.

Covered bond issuers in core Europe have been taking steps to protect their southern European subsidiaries from currency reform should Spain or Italy be forced to abandon the euro.

European covered bond issuers, along with senior unsecured financials and investment grade corporates, were this week presented with excellent funding conditions, despite a ratcheting-up of pressure on Spain and Italy in the early part of the week.

Fitch has resolved its rating watch on Italian covered bonds, downgrading four programmes to between double-A and triple-B. This round of cuts was driven solely by new overcollateralisation requirements, but Fitch is bringing in a new methodology and could look at Obbligazioni Bancarie Garantite (OBGs) again soon.

Moody’s said it is concerned that the rising volume of retained covered bonds is allowing issuers to unilaterally relax standards on their programmes. Italian issuers have lowered collateral requirements and delayed the posting of additional collateral through adverse amendments, said the rating agency. Other jurisdictions, such as Spain, that rely heavily on ECB repo funding are also at risk.

Secondary covered bonds spreads are grinding tighter as buyers faced with negative yields in the sovereign market drive short dated covered yields towards zero. While core jurisdictions wallow in a sea of demand, investors are still averse to peripheral paper, but the wide spread gap could cause Spanish and Italian spreads to bounce back, said bankers.

Italian issuers are dangling close to junk after another round of downgrades from Moody’s. Though OBG ratings escaped unscathed, analysts expect more covered cuts even without further action on the sovereign or issuers. Moody’s methodology allows for flexibility when rating the bonds of low rated banks, but Italian issuers lack the high overcollateralisation of their Spanish peers.