Italy

For the first time the European Central Bank waded into the primary market to buy covered bonds for its third purchase programme (CBPP3) this week, as eurozone issuers from the currency bloc’s core and periphery returned after a long hiatus. The central bank’s buying may not be so good for core issuers but the evidence so far suggests peripheral names who have been locked out are about to bask in its largesse.

The European Central Bank’s covered bond purchase programme entered a new phase this week as eurozone issuance enabled it to buy the primary market, rather than relying on secondary where supply is drying up. Its buying is good news for peripheral banks but may cause investors to desert the core.

Credito Emiliano became the second issuer to take advantage of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) buying programme, launching a covered bond on Thursday. The deal led to a repricing of the issuer's curve in a move that could spur other peripheral names to return to the market.

Covered bond yields fell on Tuesday as Bunds rallied following a larger than expected fall in the ZEW business sentiment index and lower than expected inflation data. The European Central Bank (ECB) could be poised to commence buying on Wednesday after its scheduled meeting. Since the ECB is likely to be targeting the spread to government bonds, Pfandbriefe are likely to be on the bank’s shopping list, as they look more attractive than peripheral bonds versus their government bonds.

European covered bonds have been relatively stable in the secondary market this week, though second tier banks in the periphery widened marginally on light selling on Friday, with Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena leading the way after posting a higher than expected loss. The move is likely to be short-lived provided the geopolitical backdrop does not worsen.

Banca Popolare di Sondrio surprised the market on Tuesday, announcing and pricing its inaugural Obbligazioni Bancarie Garantite via sole lead BNP Paribas. The newcomer which is a slightly larger institution than its more established covered bond peer, Credito Emiliano, offered a deal with a substantial spread pick up enticing a broad swathe of investors. (This article has one comment)

Bankers expect more bad news to come out of Portugal and the correction being seen in peripheral covered bonds may therefore have further to go. But this bad news fundamentally does not change the positive longer term picture for the rest of peripheral Europe. A technical retracement had been long overdue and will provide a rare buying opportunity for real money investors and banks looking to cover their shorts.

Three issuers launched covered bonds this week with varying results, which suggested that the converging trend between core and peripheral Europe has stalled. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) struggled to attract anything like the demand seen in its previous covered bond as Portuguese woes outweighed the programme’s rating upgrade into investment grade territory.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) took advantage of its new position among covered bond investment grade borrowers to take a 10 year benchmark to market on Tuesday. Given its €1bn seven year tap in April attracted one of the highest oversubscriptions of any covered bond of that size this year, expectations for Tuesday’s deal were high. But on that basis the deal disappointed, despite it delivering another €1bn for the issuer.

Standard & Poor's upgraded BBVA’s mortgage backed covered bond programme from A to AA- after the European close on Tuesday, while Fitch upgraded UniCredit’s Italian programme from A+ to AA-. The upgrades take the programmes towards a level that gives regulatory benefits. UniCredit has most to gain.

Mediobanca was the sole issuer to put its head above the transaction parapet on Tuesday morning following Mario Draghi’s speech on Thursday. Offering a €750m five-year trade to a supply-hungry market, the deal priced at least 3bp through fair value, according to a lead banker on the deal — a clear signal that the periphery tightening story is not over yet.

Veneto Banca has issued its second RMBS in as many months, while Banca Sella was set to price its first RMBS deal since 2005 on Friday. The short dated single A rated deals, that offered a compelling triple digit spread, will give covered bonds a run for their money for investors that understand the risk.