Italy

Three issuers launched covered bonds this week with varying results, which suggested that the converging trend between core and peripheral Europe has stalled. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) struggled to attract anything like the demand seen in its previous covered bond as Portuguese woes outweighed the programme’s rating upgrade into investment grade territory.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) took advantage of its new position among covered bond investment grade borrowers to take a 10 year benchmark to market on Tuesday. Given its €1bn seven year tap in April attracted one of the highest oversubscriptions of any covered bond of that size this year, expectations for Tuesday’s deal were high. But on that basis the deal disappointed, despite it delivering another €1bn for the issuer.

Standard & Poor's upgraded BBVA’s mortgage backed covered bond programme from A to AA- after the European close on Tuesday, while Fitch upgraded UniCredit’s Italian programme from A+ to AA-. The upgrades take the programmes towards a level that gives regulatory benefits. UniCredit has most to gain.

Mediobanca was the sole issuer to put its head above the transaction parapet on Tuesday morning following Mario Draghi’s speech on Thursday. Offering a €750m five-year trade to a supply-hungry market, the deal priced at least 3bp through fair value, according to a lead banker on the deal — a clear signal that the periphery tightening story is not over yet.

Veneto Banca has issued its second RMBS in as many months, while Banca Sella was set to price its first RMBS deal since 2005 on Friday. The short dated single A rated deals, that offered a compelling triple digit spread, will give covered bonds a run for their money for investors that understand the risk.

Veneto Banca and Rabobank have mandated leads for RMBS. The deals offer a generous pick up to what investors could expect in covered bonds given their comparably low risk.

The Italian bankers association (ABI) conference kicked off in Milan on Wednesday, where participants discussed the new OBG framework and considered ways to induce SME lending with reference to the newly proposed Obbligazioni Bancarie Collateralizzate framework and the ABS market.

Credit sentiment is positive, and it seems unlikely that the European Central Bank would take anything other than an accommodative stance at next week’s policy meeting, but bankers are getting cautious that valuations are becoming overstretched, particularly in those markets which have until now been considered safe havens.

Italian banks' repayments of liquidity drawn under the European Central Bank’s (ECB) long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) have been slower than in most other European countries, said Fitch on Wednesday. Analysts say Italy’s smaller banks are going to be increasingly incentivised to term out ECB liquidity with publicly syndicated covered bond issuance, but with stress test results due in October, time is running out.

Covered bonds that can be bought in size and with a triple digit spread over mid swaps are a rare commodity, so it was perhaps unsurprising that Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) attracted one of the highest oversubscriptions of any covered bond of this size this year. But twinned with its recent senior issuance, the deal shows that the bank can easily access to capital markets, which can only help underpin confidence ahead of its capital raise.

A bigger bank is not necessarily the same as a stronger bank, which is why the Bank of Italy’s draft proposal redefining which borrowers can issue covered bonds should be applauded.

A flurry of issuance from banks has led to a positive outlook for the Italian covered bond market, as financial institutions — old and new — move away from central bank liquidity.