Germany

Sovereign bond market volatility continued to buffet markets on Thursday and, after the slew of FIG issuance in the last week, there was a degree of supply indigestion. But covered bond bankers did not think there was much to be read into the lacklustre execution of this week’s German and Australian deals. The two issues were solid trades, but for idiosyncratic reasons lacked the sparkle of earlier deals.

The prospective amendment to the German Pfandbrief Act to give the German regulator authority over minimum overcollateralization (OC) may prove a credit positive, said Fitch on Tuesday. But the proposals are too thin on detail for any concrete rating action on programmes to be taken.

The covered bond market is in danger of losing a swathe of real money investors who have been put off by low returns and declining issuance. But a rich new stream of demand from bank investors looking to fill their liquidity buffers could fill the vacuum in time. However, these buyers should be more interested in looking at the nascent floating rate format and not the fixed rate market that until now has prevailed.

After a long string of syndication success stories this year, the covered bond market finally saw some investor pushback on Tuesday when Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen (Helaba) issued a tightly priced two tranche Pfandbrief. The outcome gives ammunition to those that are concerned valuations have become overstretched. However the funding was very cheap, attracted exceptionally strong international demand and was placed with high quality accounts.

Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen (Helaba) mandated leads for a dual tranche triple-A rated public sector Pfandbrief on Monday, for launch on Tuesday.

Depfa Bank plc will not be sold to an unrated entity, but will be transferred to the German government’s wind-down institution for Hypo Real Estate Holding, FMS Wertmanagement (FMSW). The issuer’s covered bonds tightened by around 60bp on Wednesday from Tuesday’s open as uncertainty over its future was removed.

A prospective amendment to the German Pfandbrief Act will give the German regulator the authority to decide on the minimum level of overcollateralisation (OC) that Pfandbriefe issuers require. This will be decided on a case-by-case basis, could well be above the current legal minimum and will give stronger investor protection than private contractual commitments.

Depfa ACS covered bonds were unchanged on Thursday as the names of the failed bank’s preferred bidders emerged. The buyer’s strong rating suggests the covered bond rating is safe, and even if a sale is not agreed, the German government’s continued ownership means the rating is protected. As such, the covered bonds which have the highest rating in Ireland, should be trading tighter than all other Irish deals.

Credit sentiment is positive, and it seems unlikely that the European Central Bank would take anything other than an accommodative stance at next week’s policy meeting, but bankers are getting cautious that valuations are becoming overstretched, particularly in those markets which have until now been considered safe havens.

Jochen Hartlieb has joined IKB Deutsche Industriebank from Bayerische Landesbank.

Depfa ACS covered bonds tightened by 30bp on Thursday morning, after German press reports fuelled speculation that it would not be sold to an unrated buyer, but would remain in the hands of the German government. As Depfa’s bonds have a higher rating than other domestic Irish covered bonds, they have potential to tighten much further, bankers told The Cover on Thursday.

Deutsche Postbank AG announced it has entered into a voluntary commitment to maintain nominal overcollateralisation (OC) of its mortgage cover pool above the statutory legal minimum. The commitment was triggered by Fitch’s negative rating action on its covered bonds, which will quickly be remedied, the agency told The Cover. However, whether voluntary overcollateralisation will be there for investors in the event of an issuer’s insolvency under new regulatory arrangements is an open question.