France

The increase in retained issuance will have a lasting impact on the primary covered bond market and could reduce benchmark supply to ‘showcase transactions’, Barclays analysts warn.

Bankinter on Thursday swiftly followed peripheral peer UniCredit’s success from the day before. The Spanish borrower launched a blow-out three year benchmark trade 20bp inside initial price thoughts, as traders struggled to keep up with a big spread rally in peripheral paper.

As part of a long term shift in its funding strategy, France’s Crédit Foncier is to start issuing RMBS alongside covered bonds. It is set to begin with a private placement in the coming weeks.

Investor sentiment towards Spain and Italy has improved since August, according to a Crédit Agricole survey. However, most buyers’ credit lines are unchanged, which means many still cannot take advantage of remarkable relative value.

Core covered bonds are performing poorly, with low coupons putting investors off, according to Deutsche Bank analysts. Higher yielding peripheral paper could benefit as a result, but the prospect for fresh benchmark trades from southern Europe remains uncertain.

Investors are cash-rich and covered bond spreads look set to remain fairly stable – ideal conditions for covered bond issuance. However, deal flow is set to remain quiet as most issuers are well funded, and those that could do deals are about to enter blackout period.

French and German covered bonds have outperformed sovereign and agency debt from the same countries, and investors would now benefit from switching out of covered bonds, Barclays analysts have advised. But traders countered that a dearth of new issuance is preventing such profit taking, and will help keep core covered bond spreads tight in the short term.

Norddeutsche Landesbank could open books on a debut dollar covered bond as early as Tuesday morning, said syndicate leads on Monday. But the outlook for a first sterling trade from Deutsche Pfandbriefbank is more uncertain.

DexMA, the French local authority funding entity, has told The Cover that it will return as an Obligation Foncière issuer next year, after it is sold, subject to European Commission approval, to a group of shareholders, including the French State, La Banque Postale and Caisse des Dépôts. This follows the news that its former parent, the troubled Belgian issuer Dexia, has now fully complied with EC requirements to offload subsidiaries, after the sale of its Luxembourg unit, following earlier disposals of its Turkish and RBC Dexia businesses.

Markit is expected to unveil a new tradable liquid covered bond index in October or November. Though it may not necessarily be actively traded, it should provide a more useful measure than the existing index, as it will help investors to gauge more closely their performance in relation to the most relevant parts of the covered bond market.

Deutsche Hypothekenbank Hannover mandated for its second benchmark covered bond of the year on Monday. The borrower is expected to price the seven year mortgage backed trade on Tuesday, taking the number of deals in that maturity year to date to almost double that of 2011.

Sampo Housing Loan Bank on Wednesday mandated for the sixth seven year covered bond benchmark of September, and should price the trade on Thursday. Despite a renewed appetite for risk in the wider market, covered bond supply remains consigned to safer names, but a successful auction for the Spanish sovereign could pave the way for further Cédulas.