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The suggestion by Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Dutch finance minister and head of the Eurogroup, that senior bail-in could become the norm in bank bail-outs has spooked the markets. The subsequent retraction was an attempt to reflect the politically acceptable view that the Cyprus situation is a one-off. But in fact he had articulated perfectly how bank bondholders should view their investments. Bail-in needs to be priced in before denial once again takes hold.
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Taiwanese banks are under fire for their poor profit margins, with frenzied competition in the market their biggest problem. Banking consolidation might seem the obvious way out, but this doesn’t look likely. In any case, it would not cure all the sector’s ills.
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Cyprus’s need for a bail-out has been known for months. A week ago, no one in financial markets was worrying about it. Suddenly, the precipice metaphors are getting wheeled out again. The botched series of attempts to spread the pain to Cypriot depositors are perhaps the clumsiest own goal of the crisis so far. But what did the planners get wrong — and did they get anything right?
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Conspiracy or cock-up? What on earth were the eurozone authorities trying to achieve by letting Cyprus even consider breaking the spirit, if not the letter, of insured depositor protection? Perhaps it was just a mistake. Or perhaps not.
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The botched bank job in Cyprus has clearly thrown in a spanner in the works for Asian bond bankers, but they have shown before that they can work around problems from Europe. The biggest hurdles are not fundamental, they are technical. The sheer scale of supply building up now means bankers are in for a rocky ride over the next few months.
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Demand among Asian private bank investors for subordinated debt from both European FIG issuers and domestic names has been under pressure. As Aberdeen Asset Management meets those investors in advance of a potential Reg S perpetual transaction, it must get its message right and think carefully about execution.
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The extent of Société Générale’s struggles to meet the targets it set itself in 2010 for its Ambition SG 2015 restructuring plan were laid bare on Wednesday as it reported full year results that were just a fraction of what it once thought possible.
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Turkish bank borrowers are again causing controversy in the loan market. But despite some lenders’ vociferous protests, Turkish banks’ march to sub-100bp pricing seems unstoppable.
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Korea Housing Finance Corp has come under fire for pressing ahead with a covered bond before the country’s new domestic framework is in place. But fears that it will damage investor appetite for other Korean deals are overblown.
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Letting central banks run monetary policy seemed a great idea in the 1990s. But it manifestly failed to end boom and bust. Now everyone shouts at central banks to solve the economy’s problems. Who should decide what they do? Only elected governments can, and it should be their responsibility.