Europe

Covered bond practitioners say the release of Capital Requirements Directives IV is positive for the sector and broadly similar in outlook to the draft version of Basel III that sealed a structural bank bid for the sector. There have been changes in the way covered bonds are treated by the Liquidity Coverage Ratio, and potentially in the way the Net Stable Funding Ratio is applied. Underlying market sentiment remains negative, as many believe that the sovereign debt crisis is only just beginning.

Though a revision of the Capital Requirements Directives (CRDIV) released today will likely be positive for covered bonds, traders and syndicate bankers are not convinced of any lasting effect on market sentiment. On the contrary, the sovereign debt crisis, they said, can only get worse.

Standard & Poor’s cut Bank of Ireland’s UK covered bond programme from A+ to A- and removed it from credit watch negative, though all covered bonds issued under the programme remain on negative outlook.

Korea Housing Finance Corporation has opened books on its second ever covered bond, a $500m five and a half year transaction. US book building has yet to commence, but with the book already twice covered on the back of strong demand from Asia and Europe, a good reception seems likely. The deal is expected to price later today.

The euro primary market remained closed on Monday. The secondary market, however, has been more active, with liquidity present for both core and peripheral paper. Even Portuguese bonds have enjoyed interest, as fast money accounts salivate over double digit yields.

Moody’s cut the covered bond ratings of five Portuguese issuers on Friday, following a downgrade of the issuers’ senior unsecured ratings on the same day. The senior unsecured cuts, said Moody’s, were prompted by the downgrade of Portugal’s sovereign debt rating on April 5.

West Bromwich Building Society has postponed its Kenrick No. 1 RMBS, following intense market speculation about the deal’s fate on Thursday. The society’s decision comes at the end of an exceptionally difficult week for Europe’s capital markets including the ABS market. Santander Germany postponed an auto ABS and Banca Etruria held back an Italian RMBS as a result of market volatility on Tuesday.

Fitch became the latest rating agency to downgrade bonds to the border of sub investment grade on Thursday, when it cut the covered bonds of four Greek banks. Its leniency relative to Moody’s, which already rates the covered bonds concerned sub investment grade, means the bonds remain repo eligible.

BNP Paribas has launched the first dollar covered bond index that includes non-SEC registered transactions, which make up nearly all of dollar denominated covered supply. But the French bank will need market interest to legitimise the decision to include bonds that are not allowed on other leading indices, according to market participants.

A senior DCM covered bond banker talks to The Cover about the market outlook for the next six weeks which, aside from the sovereign crisis, will also encompass legislative progress on bank resolution regimes, new developments on CRD 4 and how these might impact the covered bond market.

Insurance companies will increase their holdings of covered and government bonds, while reducing their allocation to equity and long term corporate bonds, according to a report from the Bank of International Settlements.

Investors have plenty of cash to put to work and there is scope for modest issuance next week if stable market conditions prevail but thereafter the funding window is expected to move to late August. In the secondary market, spreads are slightly wider but activity is mostly confined to price checking. Italian auctions went well, breeding a little confidence but overall conditions still remain nervous.