The covered bonds of Portuguese and Irish banks are drawing ever closer to sub-investment grade status, though they are likely safe for the summer. Moody’s on July 12 cut Ireland from Baa3 to Ba1 and assigned a Timely Payment Indicator (TPI) of Very Improbable to all Portuguese mortgage-backed covered bonds. Some issuers are rated only by Moody’s, though should the sub-investment rating line be crossed, analysts expect the European Central Bank to alter its criteria for repo eligible collateral.
Moodys downgraded mortgage-backed covered bonds issued by Caixa Económica Montepio Geral from Baa2 to Baa3, on review for downgrade, following a downgrade of the Portuguese sovereign on July 5.
The rating agency said the sovereign downgrade has negatively affected Portuguese covered bonds through its impact on the TPI. Moodys