Special round-up: China’s ‘Two sessions’ kick off
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Asia

Special round-up: China’s ‘Two sessions’ kick off

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Chinese lawmakers are gathering in Beijing for their annual conference, with premier Li Keqiang already announcing measures to further open up financial markets. China’s parliament is expected to consolidate regulations overseeing foreign investments, and analysts are anticipating announcements on who will take the helm at the People’s Bank of China after Zhou Xiaochuan.

Policy direction:


  • The Chinese government will make it easier for foreign financial institutions to enter and expand in the Chinese market, premier Li said in his annual work report on March 5.
    “We will open up markets, such as the bank card settlement market, in an orderly manner, and lift restrictions on the business scope of foreign insurance companies,” he said. “We will relax or remove the share ratio of foreign investment in banks, securities companies, futures companies, financial asset management companies, and unify the market access standards for Chinese and foreign banks.”
  • In order to attract more foreign investment, the government will allow foreign companies to defer tax payments on profits which they are using to re-invest onshore.
  • Li also said the government will continue to promote the development of the bond and futures markets. It will also deepen market reforms in interest rates and the RMB exchange rates, keeping the latter on a stable level.
  • Finally, the premier touched on the need to prevent financial risk — a key policy objective outlined by president Xi Jinping last year.
    “We will strengthen financial regulatory co-ordination and organisation [and] improve oversight over shadow banking, internet finance and financial holding companies,” said Li.


Investment law:

  • The NPC will consolidate the three laws governing foreign investment and create a single new law to promote and protect foreign investment in China, Zhang Yesui, executive vice foreign minister and the spokesperson for this year’s NPC meeting, told a March 4 press conference.
  • Zhang added that China will continue to liberalise and facilitate trade and investment, relax market access, create a transparent, stable and predictable investment environment, and ensure that the legal rights of foreign investors are protected.

Regulatory setup:



Belt and Road:

  • Critics who claim the BRI is a geopolitical threat have fundamentally misunderstood the purpose of the China-led initiative, Zhang told the March 4 press conference. He said the BRI advocates economic co-operation, and aims to achieve interconnectivity to benefit of all countries involved.
    “All participants are equal partners,” he said. “The BRI is an open and tolerant platform, and does not exclude or go against any country. It is open to all interested countries.



What are the analysts saying?

Front-and-centre for most analysts is the question of who will be the new PBoC governor, as the incumbent Zhou Xiaochuan is expected to step down soon.

Le Xia, chief economist for Asia at BBVA Research, named Liu He, politburo member and a top economic adviser to president Xi Jinping, and Guo Shuqing, chairman of the CBRC, as the two candidates in the running for the central bank’s top job. But whoever ends up in this role, the new governor is bound to have a broader remit than his predecessor.

“With the prospective restructuring of the financial regulatory framework, the central bank will play a much more important role in financial regulation than now,” said Le.

Aside from the central bank’s governorship, markets will be watching out for the NPC’s plans to reform financial regulators, and any hint that elaborates on the role of the Financial Stability and Development Commission (FSDC), said Yifan Hu, regional chief investment officer and chief China economist at UBS.

The NPC could announce a merger between the CBRC and the CIRC, said Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics.

“Financial regulation is also likely to see organisational reform,” he said. “[A CBRC-CIRC merger would] reduce the fragmentation of China’s financial supervision and regulation. The new agency, together with the PBoC and the CSRC, would report to the FSDC.”

Regardless of the regulatory shake-up, Kuijs said the overarching goal for China in 2017 will remain balancing economic growth with deleveraging.

Betty Wang, senior China Economist at ANZ, added that preventing financial risk, a policy objective emphasised by president Xi Jinping throughout last year, will be particularly important to the leadership.

“China will focus on executing reforms aggressively and prioritise risk management in 2018,” said Wang.

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