I’m being frozen out of the capital markets

Dear KOC,

First, let me say that I sympathise. The market you are describing is real and it is brutal, and the fact that you are finding it hard does not mean you are finished. Nevertheless, I think you may be slightly misdiagnosing what is happening to you, and that matters because the wrong diagnosis leads to the wrong treatment.

You are a director. That’s in many ways the hardest level at which to find a lateral or new job in investment banking. You are too senior for the roles where banks simply need a Stakhanovite worker to do the grunt work and too junior to be the person who owns the relationships and has the capacity to generate a lot of new business. You are, in a phrase that will be familiar to you from politics if not from banking, the squeezed middle. Directors are neither fish nor fowl, which means most hires at your level are a nice-to-have but not a must-have. Nice-to-haves are the first thing that gets deferred when banks are cautious.

On the question of whether you are considered obsolete after eight months out, I would push back on your colleague’s view more firmly than you have. I don’t think the bond market truly believes that someone of your experience becomes irrelevant in eight months, or even eighteen. The fundamentals of DCM origination have not been rewritten. Your clients are, as you say, still in their seats.

What I think is actually happening is subtler and in some ways more troubling. The longer you’re out of the market, the more the absence itself becomes a signal. Hiring managers start to wonder, fairly or not, whether the fact that nobody has snapped you up yet means something. It’s a gnarly dynamic because it is self-reinforcing, and it has nothing to do with your actual ability. The market in effect free-rides on the apparent indifference of other market participants and uses that as a reason (or pretext) not to hire you. Your priority has to be to break that signal.

On the subject access request, I would strongly counsel against it. You will not get anything useful. Banks know that certain categories of information are exempt from disclosure under data protection law precisely because they contain confidential business deliberations. You will get your name, your address and perhaps some HR correspondence, but nothing that sheds light on what was said in a hiring or firing discussion. The juicy stuff will be excluded or redacted. Worse, it will get back to people and will not do your reputation any favours.

The consulting question is harder. You were right to be wary of the ethereal consultancy that fools nobody. But I can imagine a version of DCM consulting that can work: if you have two or three relationships with CFOs or treasurers who trust you personally and would pay a retainer for your advice, then it is worth exploring.

But I have to warn you: If someone approaches you asking you to help them raise capital on a success fee basis with no retainer, my strong suggestion is to think very carefully before agreeing. If they cannot raise capital through normal channels and are coming to you, there is usually a reason for that, and you may spend months of effort for no reward whatsoever. People are always looking for ways to get you to work free-of-charge or bear the financial risk of non-completion. Don’t let them! It’s a lot of pain but no gain.

Which brings me to one idea you may not have fully considered. Corporate treasury departments are crying out for people who genuinely understand the primary debt markets. The pay will likely be a meaningful step down, the pace is slower, and the bureaucracy even more stifling. Still, your experience is directly relevant, arguably more so than it would be to another bank, and the hiring decision is a simpler one for a corporate treasurer to make than for an investment bank. It may not be the answer but it is worth serious thought.

I wish I had a ready-made solution for you. Keep pounding the pavement, be flexible about compensation, and do not let the signal of absence compound further. You are not done.

Keep driving,

Craig