Covered Bonds
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With expectations of Spanish and UK supply for 2008 having been slashed, the market looks set to rely on three areas to support high supply forecasts for the year: France, Germany and new entrants. The Cover asked analysts whether the first two months of the year have led to any revisions to their estimates for the market in general and the two core jurisdictions in particular.
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Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, is reported to have told a US conference yesterday (Monday) that she hopes to have a draft policy statement on covered bonds out in a month’s time.
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With two months of the year gone and, according to the most recent forecasts, as much as 20% of 2008’s supply printed, Deutsche Bank has doubled its lead at the top of The Cover’s benchmark league table. But it is not proving such a happy new year for Barclays Capital, which has tumbled from top spot to 13th.
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The covered bond market endured a rocky morning today, with spreads widening alongside heavy falls in equities, giving the European Covered Bond Council further food for thought ahead of its meetings in Milan later this week. But Germany could once again prove the exception in the primary market.
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In light of press reports on the Association of German Pfandbrief Banks’ views on potential changes to market-making, and ahead of next week’s European Covered Bond Council meetings where the Packmohr Plan will be centre stage, The Cover spoke exclusively to Louis Hagen about the vdp’s stance.
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Barclays Capital’s analysts have slashed their forecasts for benchmark issuance in 2008 by Eu40bn, from Eu190bn to Eu150bn, lower than any bank was expecting only two months ago.
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The Association of German Pfandbrief Banks (vdp) was promoting the Pfandbrief under the banner “Investment without side effects” at the Euromoney Bond Investors Congress yesterday (Wednesday), but not everyone was convinced that covered bonds themselves had avoided the hangover from the subprime crisis.
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Bank of Scotland could launch the first UK covered bond under the country’s new legislation, having mandated Dresdner Kleinwort, Landesbank Baden-Württemberg and Natixis to hold a roadshow for covered bond investors starting in early March.