Dutch result no reason to ignore European populism

Bankers around Europe are breathing easier on news that Geert Wilders will not be forming part of the next Dutch government. But why?

  • By Lewis McLellan
  • 16 Mar 2017
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Investors, who saw Wednesday's Dutch election as a proxy for the health of populist movements in Europe, seem comforted that the spectre of euroscepticism is not as scary as thought and are flocking into equities, pushing up stocks across Europe.

But what changed? Wilders may no longer constitute a threat to the integrity of the eurozone but thanks to the Dutch political system and the other parties in it, he never really did. His failure says nothing about the future of eurozone populism. To claim otherwise is Wilders speculation.

But there is also no read-across to the rest of Europe.

Marine Le Pen, French National Front presidential candidate, has regained the lead in first round polls. In Italy, the Five Star Movement has polled ahead of the Democratic Party for most of March. Alternative for Deutschland may win its first seats in September’s general election.

For all the talk of a homogeneous populist movement, the success of these parties is not correlated. While united by euroscepticism, each party has a national, even parochial, focus.

But one cannot write-off the euro-haters either. The Dutch result belies the fact that Wilders and his ilk can, like UKIP's Nigel Farage in the UK, wrench discourse to the right, perhaps irrevocably, despite never gaining power.

Guard against complacency. If the Brexit referendum taught us anything, it is that a single party’s failure in an election does not mean a failed movement. 

  • By Lewis McLellan
  • 16 Mar 2017

All International Bonds

Rank Lead Manager Amount $m No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • 13 Mar 2017
1 JPMorgan 94,925.33 384 8.39%
2 Citi 87,531.58 331 7.74%
3 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 84,341.49 288 7.46%
4 Barclays 75,288.19 241 6.66%
5 Goldman Sachs 68,504.71 208 6.06%

Bookrunners of All Syndicated Loans EMEA

Rank Lead Manager Amount $m No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • 14 Mar 2017
1 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 10,650.87 23 11.13%
2 Deutsche Bank 8,169.49 17 8.53%
3 HSBC 6,243.46 23 6.52%
4 Citi 4,355.35 13 4.55%
5 SG Corporate & Investment Banking 4,273.37 17 4.46%

Bookrunners of all EMEA ECM Issuance

Rank Lead Manager Amount $m No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • 21 Mar 2017
1 JPMorgan 5,440.56 17 10.74%
2 Deutsche Bank 4,468.97 23 8.82%
3 UBS 3,742.72 17 7.39%
4 Citi 3,393.89 23 6.70%
5 Goldman Sachs 3,360.93 18 6.63%