South America

Rating agencies have continued their policy of taking swift action on Latin American governments as Standard & Poor’s removed its positive outlook from Brazil, the region’s largest economy, citing political opposition to President Jair Bolsonaro as a key reason.

For now, at least, Argentina appears to be asking its domestic bondholders to take the brunt of the government’s efforts to ease cashflow worries amid the Covid-19 crisis, providing upward momentum to foreign law debt prices.

As the initial government-imposed deadline for Argentina’s mammoth debt restructuring sailed by without a concrete offer to creditors having been put on the table, some analysts are worried that a hard default may be inevitable.

Two major rating agencies now have Colombia on the lowest rung of the investment grade ladder with a negative outlook after Fitch took action on the sovereign. Cries from former finance ministers that it was an inappropriate time for downgrades fell on deaf ears.

Emerging market bonds are trying to catch the same bid that has gripped investment grade markets, particularly in the US. Now, Latin America borrowers are scavenging once more for chances to print new issues.

Latin American corporates from across the rating spectrum are taking a range of measures to protect their liquidity in the face of the Covid-19 slowdown, but analysts suggest several defaults are inevitable as the region is hit on several fronts.

After its long-awaited debt sustainability analysis disappointed many investors and analysts, Argentina’s desire to solve its debt restructuring quickly may buckle under the pressure of its attempts to mitigate the impact of Covid-19.

Mauricio Cárdenas, Colombia’s finance minister in 2012-18, has told GlobalCapital that emerging market nations would struggle to raise the financing required to fund measures to treat the Covid-19 pandemic and consequent economic slump. “Difficult years are coming” for EM, warned the former official.

Martín Guzmán, Argentina’s finance minister, said on Friday afternoon that the country was “ready to intensify interaction” with international bondholders ahead of a debt restructuring. But with authorities set to announce further spending to protect its people from the economic impact of Covid-19, the IMF echoed the government’s view that a fiscal surplus was unfeasible in the short term.

Colombia’s Ecopetrol became the first of Latin America’s big national oil companies to launch an action plan to combat the continued fall in oil prices as it looks to preserve cash.

Latin American governments looking to shore up their economies in the fact of the coronavirus pandemic generally have less room for fiscal stimulus than they did before the 2008 financial crisis, warned Fitch Ratings on Wednesday as the region’s bond markets plunged even further.

Colombia’s Ecopetrol became the first of Latin America’s major national oil companies to launch an action plan to combat the continued fall in oil prices as it looks to preserve cash.