Credit Suisse First Boston is recommending that clients buy one-year dollar puts against a basket of currencies containing euro, Swiss franc, sterling, Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars. Kevin Chang, foreign exchange strategist in London, said it is recommending this trade because the bank expects the dollar to depreciate against the basket of currencies as the U.S. economy slows down. National Association of Purchasing Management manufacturing survey data released last week suggests the weakening is likely to continue, as the economy slows and interest rates fall. CSFB is pitching the strategy with a maturity of between six months and one year because it believes there is room for a short-term correction in the dollar's recent weakening against the euro. CSFB forecasts euro/dollar at above parity, dollar/Swiss franc at CHF1.56, cable at USD1.45, dollar/Aussie at USD0.60, dollar/Canada at CAD1.45 and dollar/New Zealand at USD0.48 in 12-months.
January 08, 2001