Highmark Capital Management will swap 10% of its portfolio, or $200 million, from agencies into corporates and ABS, while shortening the duration, on the view that the yield curve will be steeper by year-end. Dick Grahman, portfolio manager with the San Francisco-based firm, says the economy will start to look brighter toward the end of the year, and an inflation premium will begin to be built into bond yields. The curve will steepen because, as the Federal Reserve holds down the short end, the long end will start to move up. He plans to deploy this strategy up to the end of the year, when he thinks rates may begin to move back up again. It may take a year and a half to two years before rates are high enough to buy back agency bonds, so he considers the trade a long-term shift in strategy.
July 15, 2001