High-yield and corporate credit market analysts expect spreads to narrow significantly by early next year, if not sooner. John Lonski, chief economist at Moody's Investors Service, says high-yield spreads could contract by as much as 100 basis points by early 2002. Lonski notes that corporate borrowing costs are extremely low. Three-month LIBOR, he says, is at its lowest point since February 1994, and is down 3% from a year earlier--the steepest year-over-year decline since 1992. He also expects issuance to decline as companies become more cautious in their use of leverage. These factors, he says, point to a decline in the ratio of downgrades to upgrades, and a narrowing of yield spreads.
August 12, 2001