Tuesday's terrorist attack on New York City has hit volumes in the MTN and CP market. Trading volumes are down dramatically and investor inquiry has been almost non-existent. Forty-six trades were closed on Wednesday according to MTNWare, and the number for Thursday came to 47. This compares to volumes between 67 and 100 on the days before the attack. But dealers are optimistic that trading will pick up as the new week begins and business will regain some kind of normality. One dealer, at a European house, says: "The markets will have more clarity on Monday. People will start trying to take an interest in the markets again, but investors will still be worried about exposures and spreads." Sir Eddie George, governor of the Bank of England, told the BBC in an interview on Wednesday, September 12, that the settlement systems are working much better than could have been expected. He said: "My biggest concern yesterday was that the system of payments, settlements and arrangement would be seriously interrupted. These systems are working pretty much as normal." He added: "Some markets have been thinner than you would have expected, for example the foreign exchange market." This has had a knock-on effect in the MTN market, as one dealer explains: "A lot of markets are not open, so people do not know the right levels to post." But the secondary market was quicker to recover than new issues. One dealer comments: "The secondary market is already picking up, as are the euro and the swaps markets." And another trader predicts that trading in secondary notes will see even more action on Monday. He says: "Secondary trading will be very fierce with people trying to get out of one sector into another." The Euro-CP market saw volumes drop to less than a third of the usual number of trades, according to CPWare. Fifty-one trades were done on the day following Tuesday's attack, compared to 175 deals that would have been closed before news of the attack broke on Tuesday. And although business in the CP market is continuing at a much lower volume, it is mainly confined to one-day maturities. Philip Howes, head of Euro-CP trading at Deutsche Bank, says: "There is activity in the US, but most is on an overnight basis. A fraction of the trades have been done in US CP and investors are mindful of how liquidity could deteriorate. That will be the situation for the coming days." Issuers with both US CP and a Euro-CP programmes have felt less of an impact on their short term funding, and have found refuge in the Euromarket. And Howes, at Deutsche Bank, says: "Asset-backed issuers have been active today. They have been paying between five and 10 basis points above their normal levels in order to see them through the market. And dealers are showing a glimmer of optimism for the market. Howes, at Deutsche Bank, says: "Today (Thursday) is almost a normal market in Europe. The infrastructure for the US CP market is not in place, but we hope it will be back early next week."
September 14, 2001