Lombard Odier is shortening the duration of European government bonds in its £2.5 billion global fixed-income portfolio, 80% of which is government bonds, and has just begun to sell off positions in five- to seven-year German and French government bonds. London-based Steven Murphy, senior investment analyst, says the firm will add to its positions in 30-year Spanish and Italian government paper to capitalise on their relative cheapness versus German bunds, but will maintain the majority of the portfolio in cash, thereby keeping duration short. Italian and Spanish 30-years were trading at about 20 basis points over 30-year bunds recently, but have since gapped out to 35-40 basis points over. Once there is a sustained recovery in the global equity markets, which Murphy considers to be the leading indicator of an economic recovery, the firm plans to buy in the three- to five-year range across the board in Europe's so-called core markets.
November 11, 2001