The European swaptions market is experiencing a severe crunch in implied volatility, as the rising cost of options and expected continued demand from pension funds looking to hedge fixed guaranteed annuities has created a one-way market with market-makers looking only to buy volatility in anticipation of more demand. In the last two weeks spreads on bids and offers--if they could even be found at the same time--were anywhere from five to seven times wider than normal, according to one market official, who also noted notional deal sizes have dropped by more than 50%. "There's a real dislocation of the market right now, a scramble to pick up vol," noted one head of interest-rate swaps in London, adding, "the number of people trying to sell is very limited." Vol for a 10 year option to enter a 20 year swap rose 10.61% Wednesday from 7.31% at the beginning of October, according to UBS Warburg.
November 05, 2001