Gaming and travel investors and analysts say they are hard-pressed to find credits they can recommend, as many names are trading at higher prices than they were before Sept. 11. John Maxwell, gaming and lodging analyst at BNP Paribas, says that pricing in the sector reflects investors' willingness to overlook weak operating numbers through at least the first quarter in an attempt to be fully invested by year-end. Given that benchmark credits such as the MGM Mirage 8.375% notes of '11 (Ba1/BB+) were yielding 8.5% last Tuesday, the only two credits in which he sees value are Pinnacle Entertainment and Royal Caribbean Cruises. While Maxwell does not yet have a buy recommendation on Pinnacle, he sees little downside risk in the 9.25% notes of '07 (Caa1/B-), which were trading at 88 last Tuesday. He believes investors have already factored weak operating performance numbers into the price of the bonds. Also, he believes Pinnacle may be looking for a joint partner to fund a property it is struggling to complete in Lake Charles, La. If it were to find such a partner, he says the bonds would trade up five points.
December 16, 2001