Dollar swap spreads sloshed around in a relatively narrow range this week, but ended yesterday (Thursday) at the wide end. The five year was 49.5bp mid-market while the 10 year was at 55bp - about 7.5bp outside its recent lows. Treasuries rallied strongly, as economic data continued to be weak and the equity market lurched from one poor performance to the next. Following the release of disappointing retail sales and PPI data yesterday it is unlikely that the Fed will increase rates until the end of the year. Some analysts think it may not happen until next year.
June 14, 2002