Indonesian banks underperformed the broader Jakarta Composite Index by 16% in 2005—although that is not surprising in the context of a bad year determined by a weak currency, high interest rates and inflationary pressures. But the banks are bouncing back. "Yes, the banks' share prices have rebounded from their low in November, but their performance was merely in line with the market due to improved confidence following the cabinet reshuffle," says Liny Halim, bank analyst at Macquarie Securities in Jakarta. She expects the banks to fulfil her January profit upgrades of 19% in 2006 and 17% in 2007—reflecting higher loan growth, higher margin, mark-to-market bond gains and lower bad-debt charges. That is without a few predicted regulatory improvements—namely, non-performing loan (NPL) reclassification and lower reserve requirements.
June 01, 2006