Not many programme signings reveal a deeper meaning about the Euro-MTN market. But the announcement of the State of Hessen's (Hessen) euro3 billion ($2.63 billion) debt issuance shelf last month reflects Germany's growing dissatisfaction with its domestic schuldscheine market and its increasing attraction to Euro-MTNs. But the legacy of success enjoyed in their domestic arena may not be so easy to find in the ever-competitive Euro-MTN market. The schuldscheine market has always attracted its fair share of admirers in the past. Its trades offer more privacy than Euro-MTNs as they are not marked to market and the documentation is flexible and simple. But recent changes have started to drive the German states - one of the market's core customers - away. Hessen started distancing itself from the schuldscheine market as early as 1997 when it first saw signs of trouble, but it still tapped the market occasionally. It now looks set to leave it behind completely. "Schuldscheine was one of our biggest markets in the past but now it is dead to us," Hans-Joachim Soll, head of funding at Hessen, told MTNWeek at the time of signing. HSBC acts on Hessen's dealer panel and it identifies difficulties among the states' investor base as the key catalyst for their departure from schuldscheine. A spokesman from HSBC says: "The German states have to a large part depended on the mortgage banks as the largest buyers of their debt. These mortgage banks have in turn funded themselves via the Pfandbriefe market. As spreads in the Pfandbriefe market widened more than spreads in the schuldscheine market, it has become more difficult for them to justify these purchases." Along with the ever-deteriorating funding levels in the schuldscheine market, the larger states have been forced to look to the international public markets. Most of the states already have experience of the public market through the issuance of eurobonds and the logical next step has been for them to move to Euro-MTNs, which offer a more liquid and a wider international investor base than the schuldscheine market. But according to Stefan Reiner, debt capital market origination at Deutsche Bank, the states will need to adjust their outlook if they are to be successful in the investor-driven Euro-MTN market. "The states can be inflexible when it comes to currency," says Reiner. "They would use foreign currencies but they have rules over exposure - it has to have a swap back into euro attached. And while they have done some structured schuldscheine, it has not been as diversified in currencies as in the Euro-MTN market." And Reiner insists that the states will have to alter their funding levels if they are to be fully embraced by Euro-MTN investors. He says: "While some schuldscheine investors may follow them to the Euro-MTN market, the states' funding levels are still too tough to get them much investor interest. Currently they are not being very open and the very tight levels that they are asking for are just not possible on plain vanilla deals." Land Schleswig-Holstein signed its Euro-MTN programme at the beginning of 1999 but has done just one trade off the facility so far. The Federal State of Saxony-Anhalt's Euro-MTN programme in comparison has been a success. As well as trading in Deutschmark and euro, it has tapped sterling, US dollar and yen. Axel Guehl, treasurer at Saxony-Anhalt, admits that a lot of its success has been because it was able to adapt to the investor-driven Euro-MTNs. He says: "We signed the programme to broaden our investor base. This led us to international investors who prefer MTN instruments to schuldscheine. So it was us who followed the investors, not the other way round." With its large international dealer panel, Hessen is likely to be pushed towards accepting a diverse range of currencies. And the future for the sector on the whole seems bright. HSBC predicts record total debt issuance of euro55 billion from the states in 2002. And it is believed that the larger states such as Berlin and Nordrhein-Westfalen will soon make an appearance on the Euro-MTN stage as well.
March 08, 2002