Bob Smith, portfolio manager at Sage Advisory Services, says he will shift 10% of the firm's portfolio, or $100 million, from bullet to callable agencies, as he anticipates interest rates will rise early next year. The move is a defensive play: when interest rates rise, negatively convex callable debentures will decline in price less quickly than their bullet counterparts, says Smith. In addition, because interest rates are at an all-time low, selling expensive bullets and buying cheap callables makes sense. Smith will initiate the move immediately to take advantage of this arbitrage.
July 28, 2002