Nordics

Two Swedish transactions appear to have gone smoothly, underscoring in one syndicate banker’s view the “safe haven bid for anything Scandinavian”.

After the flurry of four deals that priced yesterday afternoon (See separate comments), the market has gone into radio silence.

The covered bond market has experienced its busiest ever week with as many as 15 deals pricing, giving a grand total of about Eu19bn over the holiday shortened week.

The iTraxx senior financials is trading wider ahead of the release of the EC’s latest draft consultation paper, which is likely to confirm suspicions that an EU wide initiative on bank bail-ins is going to be hard-coded into regulation.

DnB Nor Boligkreditt came to market yesterday (Tuesday) with a Eu2bn five year transaction, which leads Barclays Capital, Citibank, Goldman Sachs and HSBC priced at 32bp over mid swaps, in line with guidance of the low 30s area.

Primary issuance continues to power ahead with five deals pricing yesterday and a further five deals expected to price this afternoon. Several more have been announced but, in a possible sign of things to come, two have been postponed and there is speculation that another is struggling.

After a very quiet December, market participants are not surprised to see a strong start to the primary market in the New Year, with one deal already priced and as many as seven others on the way.

German 10-year Bunds are correcting slightly higher this (Friday) morning, but a long term trend of rising yields that has been in place since August remains intact. As a result, real money accounts are increasingly hitting their target returns –a driving factor behind a hugely upsized increase of a tap for Caisse de Refinancement de l’Habitat.

A final Nykredit auction on Monday concluded end-of-year auctions of interest-reset mortgage bonds held by Denmark’s mortgage credit institutions for this year. Investor interest was lower than last year, but borrowers look set to benefit from mortgage rates that will be reset to low levels compared with previous years, according to Danske Bank analysts.

Following a premature halt to new issuance this year, syndicate bankers expect the onset of 2011 to bring a rush of benchmark covered bond supply as issuers hasten to execute funding plans in anticipation of continued market volatility. A liquid buy-side should ensure that deals are readily absorbed - at least initially.

Traditional end-of-year auctions held by Denmark’s mortgage lenders kicked off yesterday (Thursday), with around Dkr537bn (Eu72bn) of interest-reset mortgage bonds lined up for refinancing. Surplus liquidity is expected to contribute to the large volumes being well absorbed despite difficult wider market conditions.

Rough market conditions and dwindling liquidity mean that few to no deals could be launched next week although some issuers are still monitoring the market, according to syndicate bankers.