Italy

Italy’s Mediobanca decided not to press ahead with a covered bond debut on Wednesday as the Republic of Italy launched a seven year BTP on the same day. Instead the issuer is expected to launch a deal targeting the mid to long end of the curve on Thursday, when it is likely to be joined by Commerzbank, which has mandated for a seven year mortgage Pfandbrief.

The covered bond market continued to trade on a stable footing on Monday, even though the US could technically default in less than two weeks. Italy’s UBI Banca successfully priced a €1.25bn deal on a comfortably oversubscribed and granular book, at a very competitive spread.

UBI Banca is set to make a return to the covered bond market for the first time in two and a half years. After mandating leads for a benchmark euro deal on Friday, books are expected to open on Monday

Five issuers from France, Germany, Ireland, Austria and Italy have joined the covered bond pipeline. And, with the European Central Bank ready to consider further extraordinary liquidity measures, the conducive technical backdrop looks set to remain. Despite this, the longer term supply outlook remains uncertain and overall issuance, which is at the decade’s low, is not about to improve.

Banca Popolare Dell'Emilia Romagna Società Cooperativa, has mandated leads for a covered bond roadshow in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s surprise decision not to taper its bond purchasing programme. The Fed’s unexpected move should support spreads and issuance, especially for borrowers like the Italian bank that offer high yields, said bankers.

The covered bond ratings of Banca Popolare di Milano and Banca Carige are likely to be downgraded to junk. This will lead to a prohibitive rise in the bonds’ capital consumption, lowering the absolute return and increasing the risk of forced selling. This will be immensely frustrating for investors, given the high quality collateral and regulatory support. The move may highlight the merits of pass-through structures.

Multi-Cédulas are enjoying some investor support, and RBS says they offer good relative value. However many of these Spanish multi issuer programmes face being downgraded to junk and are lagging the country’s government bond rally. Downgrades would spark forced selling, which the existing investor universe would not be big enough to absorb, Crédit Agricole has warned.

The four euro benchmarks that were priced this week are mostly trading slightly tighter in the secondary market, despite being priced with very small new issue premiums. Along with a period of benign macroeconomic news, the negative net supply of euro benchmarks in 2013 has created a particularly supportive backdrop for new issues, according to covered bond bankers.

The resumption of post-summer covered bond supply continued on Thursday, including the first issue out of peripheral Europe. UniCredit’s €1bn seven year was priced at the tight end of guidance, while Belgian bank KBC also tapped the market for a €750m three year that was well received, confirming the window for issuance remains wide open.

Moody’s has downgraded Banco Popolare Società Cooperativa’s long-term debt rating by three notches, from Baa3 to Ba3, over concerns about the bank’s asset quality. Analysts expect a three notch cut of its covered bond rating to follow.

Gabriele Minotti, head of funding at Credito Emiliano, spoke to The Cover about the bank’s recent covered bond deal, the roadshow and the focus of investors’ questions .

Credito Emiliano attracted a great reception for its first covered bond in two years. The deal’s success, in marked difference to last week’s less than stellar slew of primary deals, reflected the attractive premium, the issuer’s marketing efforts and, most importantly, stable market conditions.