Greece

Moody’s said on Thursday that, should Greece leave the euro, investors in Greek covered bonds would still likely receive payments in euros. Given that there are barely any Greek covered bonds held by third party investors, and the fact that the research is predicated on Grexit, the discussion is largely theoretical.

A new narrative on Greece has emerged. Syriza, the country’s recently elected left-wing party, has for months been known across Europe and across capital markets exclusively for its anti-austerity views. Now, we are hearing something at once more surprising and more worrying: that Greece, under its new government, is beginning to side with Putin’s Russia.

Cover pool encumbrance was steady last year versus the previous year, Fitch said on Thursday. The most stable levels were among the most encumbered institutions, where covered bonds have made up a large share of their financing for a long time.

Fitch has upgraded a series of Greek covered bonds, following the sovereign upgrade of the Hellenic Republic and of Greek banks. Meanwhile, Standard & Poor’s said covered bonds had recently shown rating stability despite the fragile environment.

Though the secondary market was subdued on Tuesday, the tone was still clearly constructive with buyers in virtually all sectors bar the medium part of the multi-Cédulas curve. Though the near term outlook is expected to remain buoyant, dealers are sharply divided on the outlook for this autumn and beyond.

Caisse de Refinancement de l’Habitat launched the largest French covered bond in months when it tapped a 12 year trade for an impressive €750m on Wednesday. But despite evident domestic demand, follow on trades are likely to have to wait until after the Greek elections.

Europe’s peripheral covered bond markets are looking over their shoulders after Fitch downgraded Banco Popular Portugal’s covered bonds on Wednesday. This followed downgrades of Greek and Cypriot covered bonds which have left their issuers unable to access emergency ECB repo funding.

Spread tightening has stalled after the first quarter rally, according to DZ analysts, who urged investors to reposition themselves in preparation for spread widening. But with many investors still on holiday, the secondary market has become easier to move with smaller tickets, and traders said it was too early to draw conclusions from an increase in selling.

Although the technical market backdrop continues to look strong, fundamental concerns lurk just below the surface. In the last 48 hours both Pimco and the prime minister of Luxembourg have raised concerns about the outlook for Greece and the rest of Europe. Against this backdrop, German Pandbriefe cover pools are still exposed to peripheral Europe, latest analysis shows.

Barring a poor outcome from Greece’s private sector initiative, primary supply is poised to pick up, said syndicate bankers, who advised issuers to launch trades while the market remains receptive. Covered bond analysts are lowering their euro benchmark forecasts, however, and investors are concerned about declining issuance.

Portugal’s Banco BPI launched the second covered bond tender of the year on Thursday and market participants expect more to follow ahead of the second Long Term Refinancing Operation in February.

With as many as three benchmarks pricing in different time zones and currencies in the last 48 hours, it is evident that the covered bond sector has evolved from its parochial roots to a truly global market. However as far as the Eurozone is concerned, issuance has been pitiful. This is in part owed to the cheap three year financing provided by the ECB, but also because many issuers are in blackout. As a result there are few offers and spreads look set to tighten.